After Colorado’s November special session on property taxes wrapped up, Gov. Jared Polis knew the tax cuts the legislature passed wouldn’t be enough to satisfy many homeowners.

So the next week, he issued a challenge to local government officials across the state: cut taxes yourselves, by “as much as possible.”

“Hardworking people in Colorado cannot afford a 40% increase in their tax bills, or even a 20% increase,” Polis wrote in a letter to local taxing districts. “Wages have not gone up by anything close to this amount, and high inflation and interest rates are creating an affordability crisis for many Colorado families.”

Only a handful of them took his advice, a Colorado Sun analysis of the Department of Local Affairs annual property tax report found.

Overall, local government tax revenues climbed around 20% in the 2023 tax year — a $2.5 billion increase from 2022.

That’s far less than it could have been, with actual property values surging by more than 40%.

But most of the tax relief residents received was thanks to the assessment rate cuts mandated by the state legislature — not than anything local governments did on their own.

After Polis’ demand, the average mill levy across the state fell by 4.3% — a 3.5-mill cut on the average local tax rate of 85 mills.

In 19 counties, the average mill levies actually went up slightly, including Republican strongholds like Douglas and El Paso counties.

Only 16 counties cut tax rates by more than 5% — mostly in the mountains, where home values rose the fastest. In 29 others, residents saw a slight mill levy cut of less than 5%.

STORY: Colorado governor calls special session on property taxes to avoid ballot measure fight in November

LOCAL TAXES, A STATE HEADACHE

State lawmakers say they’re tired of the annual fight over property taxes, which are levied at the local level.

“It is striking me as increasingly odd that a voter in Douglas County is impacting property taxes in the San Luis Valley, or a voter in Denver is impacting property taxes on the Eastern Plains,” Rep. Mike Weissman, an Aurora Democrat, told The Sun in an interview.

But the local government response to the historic rise in property values suggests that while they often clamor for local control, their elected leaders don’t want to cut taxes any more than state lawmakers do.

When you look at individual taxing districts, a list of close to 4,800 local entities that includes counties, cities and special districts, over 1,200 of them actually raised mill levies in 2023, for taxes paid this year. (Notably, 140 of those were newly formed special districts collecting taxes for the first time.)

Around 1,000 districts cut their tax rates, some of them to zero after a debt issuance had been paid off.

Another 1,100 didn’t change their rates at all. (The remaining entities didn’t levy a property tax in 2024, according to state data.)

The behavior of local officials is a part of why those on both sides of the tax debate are coalescing around local caps on growth. Without them, history suggests local governments might prioritize the additional tax dollars over responding to homeowner complaints.

If local governments won’t cut taxes in response to future spikes in home values, it could send the political fight right back to the state Capitol — or the statewide ballot.

Weissman’s goal for the special session is to avoid another round of property tax “Groundhog Day.”

“My focus in session is going to be to try to win support for a constitutional reform so that we more squarely put control of local tax revenue back with local voters,” Weissman said.

THE NARRATIVE

How dire are the property tax ballot measures? Business groups don’t agree.

The Denver Metro Chamber of Commerce — whose president J.J. Ament may have been the first to publicly suggest a special session back on May 13 — was notably absent among the 45 political advocacy groups to sign a letter calling for a special session this week.

The letter didn’t just call for a special session to reduce taxes, it also unequivocally denounced the two tax cut measures headed to the November ballot, calling Initiatives 108 and 50 “a very significant and real threat to all communities in Colorado.”

In an interview this week with The Colorado Sun, Ament explained that the chamber’s board endorsed a special session, but hasn’t taken a formal position on the two ballot measures.

But from Ament’s perspective, the reasons for a special session haven’t changed since he first called for one in May. He says the cap in Senate Bill 233 didn’t go far enough to slow the growth in taxes, and too many businesses were left out of the commercial tax cut lawmakers approved.

“We’ve got a really simple problem here: Property taxes spiked up without Gallagher,” Ament said, referring to the tax-limiting constitutional amendment voters repealed in 2020. “How do we fix that? That’s the issue. (Senate Bill) 233 didn’t accomplish that.”

That’s a far different argument than the one contained in the letter, which was signed by business groups such as the Colorado Competitive Council, Club 20 and the Colorado Association of Home Builders, as well as left-leaning groups such as the Colorado Education Association and the Community Economic Defense Project. In fact, there’s no mention at all in the letter that further tax cuts are needed.

Ament’s comments — in contrast to the deep concerns that other business interests have with the ballot measures — represent yet another sign of something we’ve previously reported in The Unaffiliated: The business community and conservative political groups remain divided over Initiatives 108 and 50, with few major organizations willing to publicly join Colorado Concern on its ballot pursuits.

To Ament, the dire predictions of opponents of the measures go too far.

“(Initiatives) 108 and 50 are probably not as apocalyptic as folks made them sound initially,” he told The Sun. “What we’re really talking about here, no matter what happens, is a reduction in the future rate of growth, right? None of these things are cuts.”

That mirrors the message that initiative backers Colorado Concern and Advance Colorado have tried to make in their campaign pitches.

In the first year, local governments and school districts would lose out on an estimated $2.4 billion in property tax revenue if Initiative 108 passes. But many homeowners won’t actually see their tax bills decrease from one year to the next if their home values grow faster than the cut.

“Those aren’t real cuts, and they’re not real losses,” Ament said. “It’s just a reduction in the rate of growth.”

State lawmakers and government officials beg to differ, saying that if the state has to replace billions of dollars in lost property taxes in an already tight budget year, the consequences for public services would be widespread.

POLIS DISAPPOINTED?

We asked Gov. Jared Polis if he was disappointed that Colorado Concern was pushing ballot measures his administration considers so damaging to the state.

He didn’t answer directly.

“Well, I’m disappointed that we weren’t able to reach the agreement in (the regular) session,” Polis said. “I think had people worked together a little bit faster and better, this would have been relatively less controversial.”

Here’s more from our interview with him Thursday:

• On whether it’s bad practice to allow outside groups to force legislative action through the ballot: “This is another example of an issue where, of course, it’s the right of people who petition and go to the people to decide things, but if the legislature can work it out, and we can avoid that and provide more stability for the state, that’s a good thing.”
• On whether the deal will end the property tax wars forever: “I don’t know what forever means in politics. Just like when we brought together oil and gas and environmental groups, I don’t think any of us could ever have a pretense (that) said ‘forever forever’ is a thing. But I’m … I’m hopeful that it lasts 10 years or more. You look at the reign of the Gallagher Amendment — and again, it had many flaws — but it lasted two decades of stability.”

WHAT TO WATCH

• The Pension Review Commission meets this morning to discuss potential bills for the 2025 legislative session. One idea that is likely to get drafted into legislation: increasing the state’s $225 million annual pension contribution by the rate of inflation each year.
• The Colorado GOP and Colorado Democratic Party must report their fundraising and spending in July to the Federal Election Commission on Tuesday.

COLORADO DEMOCRATIC PARTY

Ahead of its FEC filing, the Colorado Democratic Party reported this week that it raised $130,000 in July from more than 1,300 unique donors, 90% of whom were from Colorado.

The party didn’t provide information on how much it spent last month or how much it had in the bank headed into August. But party officials did disclose that they provided $10,000 in financial assistance to the state’s Democratic National Convention delegates to help offset their travel expenses.

YOU HEARD IT HERE

Walz made the remark Wednesday as he appeared at a fundraiser in Denver hosted by Tim Gill, the Democratic megadonor who made his fortune as a software entrepreneur.

Some other tidbits from the event that may have flown under the radar:

• Walz boasted that CNBC now ranks Minnesota as one of the top five states with the best economies. “You know who we bumped to six? Texas,” he said to cheers. “I don’t know about all of you, but if I’m an … employer and I had a female executive or female leadership, in Minnesota we’re not going to mess with your personal lives. You’re going to be treated the way you should. I don’t think Texas can say the same thing. Come live in states that are free. Come live in states that let you make your own choices.” The ranking was for 2023, however. This year, Texas has moved to No. 3, and Minnesota is No. 6.
• Gill, who helped fund the Democratic takeover of Colorado politics, said the state has had a political renaissance. “We kind of started kind of red and went to purple,” he said. “I think we’re pretty much blue now.”
• Polis said he told Walz that Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign shouldn’t invest any money in Colorado because the state will surely back her in November. 

Missing from the event was U.S. Rep. Yadira Caraveo, a Thornton Democrat running in the toss-up 8th Congressional District. A spokesperson said she was attending a meeting about Colorado’s bird flu outbreak.

STORY: Tim Walz, speaking at $3 million Denver fundraiser, attacks Trump for false AI-crowd claims

THE POLITICAL TICKER

GUNS

Rocky Mountain Gun Owners says it has dropped its lawsuit challenging Colorado’s 2013 law limiting firearm magazines to 15 rounds “due to unforeseen circumstances.” The National Association for Gun Rights, which is associated with RMGO, blamed the decision on the National Shooting Sports Foundation refusing “to allow its director of research to give an expert deposition regarding critical evidence.” RGMO and NAGR vowed to bring another challenge to the law.

ATTORNEY GENERAL

Colorado Attorney General Phil Weiser, a Democrat, sent out a campaign email this week touting his office’s work in the prosecution of former Mesa County Clerk Tina Peters. “I’m proud of our close work with (Mesa County District Attorney Dan) Rubinstein, a Republican, to ensure the law was enforced and the case was prosecuted with integrity, protecting our elections,” Weiser wrote. The missive comes as Weiser is rumored to be mulling a 2026 gubernatorial campaign in Colorado.

Peters, meanwhile, said on Steve Bannon’s “War Room” show that she plans to appeal her conviction.

READ MORE

• Tina Peters found guilty in plot to breach Colorado’s election system to prove voter fraud
• Colorado Springs-area woman, known as “praying Grandma,” sentenced to one year of probation for role in Jan. 6 riot
• Four-day school weeks have exploded across Colorado districts — and are setting students back
• More than $1 billion has been generated by Denver’s special sales taxes. Is the money being spent as intended?
  — The Denver Post 🔑
• Former Denver Mayor Wellington Webb pushes back on tax initiative for affordable housing
  — CBS Colorado
• Democrats turn to Jason Crow, their national security go-to, for Trump assassination inquiry
  — The New York Times 🔑
• Trump flew to Aspen on charter jet previously owned by Jeffrey Epstein
  — The New York Times 🔑
• Colorado Capitol removes ban on political apparel after lawsuit threat from pro-life advocate
  — Westword

🔑 = source has article meter or paywall

ELECTION 2024

Colorado GOP sends out transphobic email attacking Democrat running to unseat Republican Sen. Cleave Simpson

The Colorado GOP on Thursday sent out a transphobic email attacking the Democratic opponent of state Sen. Cleave Simpson, R-Alamosa, who is running for reelection in the toss-up Senate District 6.

The email repeatedly used male pronouns to refer to Vivian Smotherman, a transgender Durango farmer and Navy veteran. It also included a screenshot of a social media post from the “Libs of TikTok” account saying Smotherman is “a man pretending to be a woman” and that “in Peru he would be considered mentally ill.”

“Given Senator Simpson’s commitment to improving prosperity in rural areas and his wide-ranging support across SD-6, there is not one good reason to vote for Smotherman,” the Colorado GOP email said. “However, we have seen several Colorado elections in which gender identity garners votes from people wanting to be progressive and fearing they’ll be labeled as ‘anti-trans’ for not supporting the media’s DEI candidate.”

The party said Democratic state Reps. Stephanie Vigil and Brianna Titone — referring to Titone by her dead name — benefited from diversity, equity and inclusion pushes to win their elections. Vigil identifies as gender fluid while Titone is the first transgender person elected to the legislature in Colorado.

Zooming out: We’ve been hearing complaints from Republican campaigns about the emails the Colorado GOP has been sending out recently in support of the party’s candidates running in toss-up districts. The missives have included offensive remarks and unfounded allegations about their Democratic opponents.

The emails come as Colorado GOP Chairman Dave Williams has come under fire for not doing enough to support Republican campaigns across the state. But now some are wishing the party would just keep its mouth shut altogether.

“I already called Vivian to let her know I did not have advance knowledge of this and the attacks do not align with my value system,” Simpson told The Unaffiliated, adding that he plans to voice his frustration to the party, too.

He pointed out that he has sponsored a bill with Titone.

“I’ve been a Republican my entire life and largely a part of the calculus to run for reelection was to demonstrate you can be a conservative Republican under the gold dome and still be effective,” he said. “If you treat people with dignity and respect you can still build some small wins.”

Simpson called the state party’s email a “step backward” in his cause.

In Senate District 6, the Colorado GOP’s decision to wade into the contest could be particularly damaging.

A nonpartisan analysis of election results in the district between 2016 and 2020, completed as part of the state’s redistricting process, estimated it leans 1 percentage point in Democrats’ favor. But the 2022 election results tell another story. Gov. Jared Polis won the district by 11 points, while U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet won it by 8 points and Colorado Attorney General Phil Weiser won it by 5.

Democrats hold a 23-12 majority in the Senate, one seat shy of a supermajority. That makes Simpson’s race critical.

Simpson is known as a low-key moderate Republican who works across the aisle — he’s won the endorsement, for instance, of Democrat John Salazar, a former congressman who lives in District 6 — so he has a real shot at winning reelection. The Colorado GOP’s hold-my-beer approach to the district could jeopardize that.

At the very least, the email is giving Democrats an easy line of attack.

“Dave Williams should be ashamed of himself,” Colorado Democratic Party Chairman Shad Murib said in a written statement. “Everyone from Cleave Simpson to Jeff Hurd to Gabe Evans has a responsibility to condemn this hatred and division.”

Smotherman, in an interview with The Unaffiliated, confirmed that she had spoken with Simpson and that he offered “a very sincere and genuine apology.”

“It’s something we’re not surprised at,” she said. “We were hoping we could avoid it and stick to the issues.”`

• A bylaw amendment could make it more difficult to dislodge embattled Colorado GOP Chairman Dave Williams

VICE CHAIR SAYS SHE WAS THREATENED

Colorado GOP Vice Chair Hope Scheppelman says her family “received direct life-threatening communications” over the weekend from a person experiencing a mental health crisis.

“This individual, who typically resides in Pueblo, was in Florida with family following the recent passing of her mother, which appears to have triggered this crisis,” Scheppelman wrote in an email to members of the Colorado GOP central committee. “We are relieved to report that the situation has been neutralized, and the individual is now receiving the necessary mental health care from top professionals in Florida. Most importantly, our family is safe.”

THE BIGGER PICTURE

• Trump or Harris? It’s a tossup for many CEOs
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• After two years of far-right rule in a Michigan county, one chance to change it
  — The Washington Post 🔑
• Inside the worst three weeks of Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign
  — The New York Times 🔑
• Vacation rental industry steps up lobbying in the face of stiffer regulation
  — Reuters
• Seventy miles in hell
  — The Atlantic 🔑

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The Colorado Sun is part of The Trust Project. Read our policies.

Corrections & Clarifications

Notice something wrong? The Colorado Sun has an ethical responsibility to fix all factual errors. Request a correction by emailing corrections@coloradosun.com.

Shortly after state Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer told Colorado Public Radio earlier this week that a deal had been struck to pass a new round of property tax cuts in order to keep a package of even deeper cuts off the November ballot, reality began to set in.

While top legislative Democrats say they’re open to minor tax cuts like Kirkmeyer is proposing,calling the special session needed to do it before the ballot is finalized next month could be another matter entirely.

“At this point, I am not aware of any Democrat advocating for a special session,” Kirkmeyer, a Brighton Republican, told The Colorado Sun on Tuesday.

Instead, a number of them are doing just the opposite, fuming in public and in private at the situation they find themselves in.

On the one hand, the benefits of keeping Initiatives 50 and 108 off the November ballot are obvious. A deal would mitigate a number of risks. The governor’s office fears that if both pass, the state government would face recession-like budget cuts. Meanwhile, investors have threatened to abandon the state’s municipal bond market, a top source of financing for both public infrastructure and private development.

“It’s a relatively minor change to Senate Bill 233,” state Sen. Chris Hansen, a Denver Democrat, said, referring to this year’s property tax cut measure. “The offer that we received is, ‘if you’ll make some minor changes then we would pull down ballot initiatives and not bring any back for 10 years.’ ”

But that might not be enough to overcome Democrats’ aversion to a special session.

Here are three reasons why:

• Democrats don’t want to reward the tactics of Colorado Concern and Advance Colorado, the initiative’s sponsors. The General Assembly already passed $1 billion in property tax cuts this year with broad bipartisan support, only to have Colorado Concern and Advance Colorado say it didn’t go far enough. If lawmakers give in and call a special session, they fear they will simply encourage those with deep pockets to weaponize the ballot box in the future to force legislative action.
• Early polling doesn’t indicate either ballot measure is likely to pass. A campaign could prove especially difficult for Initiative 50, a constitutional amendment that would cap statewide property tax revenue growth to 4% each year and needs 55% of the vote to pass. Meanwhile, the coalition of business interests and elected Republicans who would normally be expected to unite in support of statewide tax cuts hasn’t materialized. “I think 50 is in deep trouble,” said Hansen, who has been involved in the negotiations on a new property tax deal. “I think the proponents know it. I think their polling and our polling does not show a lot of strength for either of those titles. And it may be the reason we’re talking right now.”
• There’s a lack of trust on both sides. The proposed deal would not kick in until next year anyway, so Hansen says there’s no need to pass any legislation before January, when the legislature reconvenes. But conservatives still feel betrayed by the lack of a promised replacement for the Gallagher Amendment, and Michael Fields of Advance Colorado insists he won’t take the measures off the ballot unless there’s a special session. Meanwhile, Democrats want ironclad assurances that outside groups won’t bring additional property tax cuts to the ballot for the next decade — but they still feel burned by the conservative response to Senate Bill 233, the bipartisan tax cut package passed this session.

Here are some of the provisions in the proposed deal, confirmed to The Sun by Kirkmeyer and Hansen:

• The residential assessment rate for local government taxes would drop an additional 0.1% next tax year to 6.3%. Today the rate is 6.7%, but under Senate Bill 233 it is scheduled to fall to 6.4% in the 2025 tax year for taxes paid in 2026. Residential assessments for schools would remain separate from those of local governments.
• Nonresidential assessment rates would drop to 25% in the 2026 tax year. Under Senate Bill 233, only commercial and agricultural property assessment rates fall to that level, while the rates for industrial and some other properties increase to 29%. 
• Local government revenue would be limited to 10.5% growth over two years, instead of 5.5% annually under Senate Bill 233. School districts would be limited to 12% growth over two years, a new cap that doesn’t exist in current law.

STORY: Investors fear a property tax cap could stifle attainable housing development in Colorado

POLITICAL RISKS OF A SPECIAL SESSION

Holding a special session doesn’t come without political risks beyond the property tax debate.

Some analysis:

• It’s an election year, and Republicans are trying to dismantle the Democratic supermajority in the House and prevent one from being secured in the Senate. The GOP could be tempted to force the issue with controversial amendments and floor speeches.
• It would invite disruption from state Rep. Elisabeth Epps, a Denver Democrat who was unseated in the June 25 primary. She has nothing to lose and has been turning to social media to express frustration about her time at the Capitol, including posting: “The only regret I have about the few bridges I burned is that I wasn’t brave enough to burn them sooner.” Departing Democratic state Reps. Tim Hernández and Jennifer Parenti could also use the special session to vent.
• Unions would likely push lawmakers to take up the bills passed during the session this year that Gov. Jared Polis vetoed. That’s part of the reason a special session wasn’t called to strip out a provision in a bill kneecapping a 2024 ballot measure that would overhaul the state’s election process. Polis can call a special session for a specific purpose, but the legislature can introduce measures beyond the scope of his call.

There’s also simply not much time for a special session to happen.

To meet the demands of conservatives, it would have to be completed before Sept. 9, when the November ballot is required to be certified by the Colorado Secretary of State’s Office. It takes at least three days to pass a bill at the Capitol. Labor Day is coming up. Lawmakers, many of whom have kids and other jobs, haven’t been warned to clear their calendars to return to Denver in the coming weeks.

SENATE DEMOCRATS MEET, COLORADO SUN KEPT OUT

The Senate Democratic caucus met Thursday afternoon on Zoom to discuss “what would even be possible with schedules/logistics” around property taxes and the state budget, a spokesperson said.

The Sun tried to attend the meeting, but was barred because legislation wasn’t going to be discussed and nothing is currently pending before the legislature, the spokesperson said.

The new open meetings law for the General Assembly that was passed by the legislature this year says the public does not have a right to attend meetings about subjects that “are by nature interpersonal, administrative or logistical.” Previously, an open meeting was broadly defined as “any kind of gathering, convened to discuss public business, in person, by telephone, electronically, or by other means of communication.”

WHAT TO WATCH

• Former President Donald Trump is scheduled to appear and speak at a campaign fundraiser Saturday in Aspen. Tickets start at $25,000. Hosts include Denver homebuilders Carol and Larry Mizel, Texas billionaire Jeffrey Hildebrand, and New York billionaire Warren Lichtenstein.
• The Pension Review Commission meets at 1 p.m. today, when it will hear recommendations from its subcommittee and a briefing from the Colorado Public Employees’ Retirement Association.
• The state Property Tax Commission meets at 1:30 p.m. Monday at the Capitol to discuss the proposed property tax deal.
• The legislature’s Colorado Youth Advisory Council Committee meets at 9 a.m. Thursday at the Capitol.
• State Rep. Gabe Evans is hosting a fundraiser in Loveland on Aug. 16 for his bid in the 8th Congressional District that will be attended by U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-Louisiana. Tickets start at $500. Former U.S. Sen. Cory Gardner and state Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer are listed as hosts for the event.

THE ASPEN TIMES: Donald Trump’s upcoming Aspen visit to be hosted by energy tycoons, investment execs and more

8TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

U.S. Rep. Yadira Caraveo, D-Thornton, is among a list of Democrats running for reelection in toss-up districts who won’t be attending the Democratic National Convention in Chicago later this month, as first reported by Punchbowl News. Caraveo is running against Evans in the 8th District.

“She’s focusing on her race,” Javier Luna, Caraveo’s spokesperson, told The Unaffiliated.

Caraveo has used her social media accounts to express support for Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate, Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota.

Meanwhile, Caraveo’s communications director, Luke Bishop, has left Caraveo’s congressional office heading into the election’s home stretch and is now working for another Democratic congresswoman.

Bishop is the second major departure from Caraveo’s communications staff in recent months. He took over from Kaylin Dines, who left the role at the beginning of the year.

THE NARRATIVE

A bylaw amendment that could make it impossible to dislodge Dave Williams before the end of his term

If opponents of Colorado GOP Chairman Dave Williams fail to remove him from the party’s top post later this month, they may be unable to dislodge him for the rest of his term, which ends in March.

A major bylaw amendment being proposed by Williams’ allies would make it harder to call a special meeting to remove the Colorado GOP chairman or other party officers.

Currently, it only takes a written request of 25% of the members of the central committee to force such a meeting and a vote. The amendment would require that request be made through a form developed and authorized by the party’s secretary, and that each member of the central committee who signs it disclose “sufficient identifying information so that the secretary can verify the requesters are voting members and that they do, in fact, desire that the requested meeting be held.”

Additionally, the amendment would create a seven-day challenge period after a request for a special meeting to remove a party officer is made. During that time, the Colorado GOP executive committee could indefinitely postpone the gathering while the challenge is pending.

The bylaw amendment is scheduled to be considered at the central committee’s Aug. 31 meeting, which is about a week after Williams’ opponents on the committee are planning to take a vote on whether to oust the chairman.

Getting the votes to remove Williams may not be easy. The Colorado GOP’s bylaws say a party officer can only be removed “by a vote of three-fifths of the entire membership of the CRC eligible to vote at a meeting called for that purpose.” There are two interpretations of the rule: it could mean 60% of those present at the meeting, or 60% of the entire central committee —which is made up of about 400 people.

Passing a bylaw amendment, by comparison, is arguably easier. It requires the support of two-thirds “of those members present and voting” at a central committee meeting.

There’s a scenario in which members of the central committee who oppose Williams show up to the Aug. 24 meeting to try to remove him, are unsuccessful and then skip the Aug. 31 meeting where the bylaw amendment is then adopted.

The Colorado GOP is not exactly broadcasting that the amendment will be considered Aug. 31. In a notice about the gathering, the party said the principal purposes of the meeting will be to consider a bylaw change on fractional voting that wouldn’t be implemented until after the 2024 election, an update on the party’s open primary lawsuit and consideration of party officer removal requests “that were properly submitted and verified.”

The Colorado GOP executive committee has already ruled that the request for a meeting to remove Williams was improperly made. The only way people would know about the bylaw amendment around removing party officers is if they read the entire report of the party’s bylaws committee, which could not be considered a document someone would read for fun.

• Judge reverses course, lifts prohibition on meeting to consider ouster of Colorado GOP Chairman Dave Williams

SHORING UP THE EFFORT TO REMOVE WILLIAMS

Current Colorado GOP leadership maintains that the Aug. 24 meeting will be “invalid and illegal” because the party couldn’t verify the legitimacy of the list of people who asked for it.

Williams opponents —led by El Paso County GOP Vice Chairman Todd Watkins and Jefferson County GOP Chairwoman Nancy Pallozzi —appear to be taking steps to stamp out that argument.

Chris Murray, the former Colorado GOP lawyer now representing Watkins and Pallozzi, said in court Tuesday that within a day of being hired he had collected nearly 50 declarations from people confirming they had requested the meeting to oust Williams.

“We are in the process of gathering declarations from everybody who signed that petition,” Murray said.

But, he added, even if he can’t get declarations from everyone who signed the petition, if at least 25% of the central committee shows up to the Aug. 24 meeting, that will prove there is enough support for a gathering to oust Williams.

Murray said Williams has been trying to prevent a quorum as a way to protect his position. “Tell people it’s a bogus meeting. Tell them not to show up. And if they don’t have a quorum, they can’t do anything,” he said.

It takes a third of the committee to constitute a quorum to even hold a valid meeting — more than is required to request the gathering in the first place.

IF WILLIAMS IS REMOVED, HOW WOULD HE BE REPLACED?

If Williams is removed, any candidates vying to replace him would only have to win a majority of those present at a central committee meeting called to fill the vacancy.

Watkins has added filling any officer vacancies to the agenda of the Aug. 24 meeting, but it’s unclear if that’s in line with the party’s bylaws.

The Republicans who are seeking to replace Williams so far include Eli Bremer, who ran unsuccessfully for U.S. Senate in 2020 and formerly served as chair of the El Paso County GOP; state Rep. Richard Holtorf, who ran unsuccessfully for Congress this year; former Routt County Treasurer Brita Horn, who ran unsuccessfully to be state treasurer in 2018; and Douglas County GOP Chair Steve Peck.

THE POLITICAL TICKER

CAPITOL SCONCE

The “original” bronze wall sconce from the Colorado Capitol that was for sale on eBay for $9,000 is no longer being offered on the site. The listing was up for more than a year, but as of July 13 at 7:08 p.m. it’s “no longer available.” Members of Colorado’s Capitol Building Advisory Committee were intent on getting the sconce back, but were unsure whether they could seize it or if they would have to purchase it.

The Colorado Sun tried to get in touch with the seller but never heard back. Legislative staffers this week told The Sun that they didn’t purchase the sconce and expressed dismay that it was no longer for sale.

STATE BOARD OF EDUCATION

Colorado Board of Education Member Rhonda Solis, a Democrat who is running for reelection to her 8th Congressional District seat, recently sent out a campaign mailer with a logo claiming she’s the first Latina elected to the board. That’s not true. She’s preceded at least by Val Flores, who was elected to the board in 2014 and served through early 2021.

Flores said the logo was a draft and that it has been corrected. She pointed out that she’s the first Latina member of the board from the 8th District. That’s true, but she’s also the first and only person on the board to be elected from the 8th District, which didn’t exist until 2022. Solis is running against Republican Yazmin Navarro, who is also Latina. The board’s pro-charter school majority hinges on the 8th District race.

PERA

Colorado’s Pension Review Subcommittee approved a handful of recommendations last week regarding the state pension. They include:

• Legislation to tie the state’s $225 million annual contribution to the Denver area consumer price index, so it would grow by inflation each year.
• Asking PERA to post recordings of its board of trustees meetings online. Currently, meetings are only available on YouTube during a livestream.
• Asking PERA to provide more detailed information on its investment benchmarks.

READ MORE

• Democratic vacancy committee picks nominee for key state House race that may shape Colorado legislature
• Could a potential school choice ballot measure lead to a voucher program in Colorado?
• Election fraud conspiracies take centerstage as friend of Tina Peters testifies at her trial
• New draft of Colorado oil and gas rules guts key protection for impacted communities, green groups say 
• Colorado resort communities want to impose a vacancy tax on unoccupied homes 
• All the new minimum wages in Colorado that kick in Jan. 1
• 15 wolves promised to Colorado by a Washington tribe aren’t coming. Here’s why.
• Wolf reintroduction has made it a lot harder to be a Colorado Parks and Wildlife employee
  — The Vail Daily
• Divided appeals court strikes down campaign disclosure requirement in Colorado law
  — Colorado Politics 🔑
• Douglas County Commissioner Abe Laydon reacts to suspension of his law license
  — The Douglas County News Press
• Steamboat needs more affordable housing. So why did residents reject a major plan fueled by a $24 million donation?
  — The Denver Post 🔑
• Dozens of new state laws poised to take effect in Colorado
  — Colorado Newsline
• Coloradan Jenna Ellis, a former Trump attorney, agrees to cooperate in Arizona fake electors case
  — The Associated Press

🔑 = source has article meter or paywall

ELECTION 2024

Colorado Voters First begins airing ads as part of campaign to pass election overhaul measure

Colorado Voters First, the Kent Thiry-funded group supporting a measure on the November ballot that would overhaul the state’s elections system, has begun running TV ads across the state.

That’s according to Federal Communications Commission filings and one of the ads themselves, which Fish (the former Sun correspondent who will never really retire) spotted this week.

The 30-second ad starts with a narrator saying “elections belong to voters, not political insiders” as images of Colorado GOP Chairman Dave Williams and the state Capitol flash across the screen. Also featured in the ad is state Rep. Emily Sirota, a Denver Democrat, with the words “DIRTY, BACKROOM POLITICS” superimposed over her.

Sirota was behind an amendment passed at the end of this year’s legislative session neutering the election overhaul measure, should it pass.

The ad doesn’t encourage voters to support a certain measure, in large part because Initiative 310, the question backed by Colorado Voters First, hasn’t qualified for the ballot yet. That’s expected to happen in the coming days, after which it will get a formal ballot designation (like Proposition 199).

Initiative 310 would change Colorado’s primaries so candidates from all parties run against each other, followed by a ranked choice general election. Colorado Voters First is in large part funded by Thiry, the former CEO of the Denver-based dialysis giant DaVita.

The committee’s latest campaign finance report shows it spent about $700,000 to gather petition signatures in July, as well as about $90,000 on “media placement,” which is likely TV ads.

The group has also brought on Democratic strategist Ted Trimpa as an adviser, the report shows.

Voter Rights Colorado, a group opposing Initiative 310 backed by a list of progressive organizations, has started raising money, too, albeit to a much lesser extent. The committee received $20,000 from Coloradans For Accessible and Secure Elections, a nonprofit created in December that doesn’t disclose its donors.

Group fighting property tax measures raises $150k

Coloradans for Local Communities, the issue committee battling two property tax cut measures headed for the November ballot has started raising money.

The group raised $150,000 in July, including $75,000 from Gary Advocacy LLC, $60,000 from the Colorado Education Fund for Children and Public Education, $15,000 from Colorado Civic Education and $10,000 from the Colorado Professional Fire Fighters.

The Alliance for Citizens’ Tax Cut, the group supporting the measures, raised just $24,000 and had about $30,000 in campaign cash to begin August.

• Proponents of 8 proposed Colorado ballot measures fail to turn in signatures by Monday’s deadline

THE BIGGER PICTURE

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  — Los Angeles Times 🔑
• What does Robert F. Kennedy actually want?
  — The New Yorker 🔑

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Corrections & Clarifications

Notice something wrong? The Colorado Sun has an ethical responsibility to fix all factual errors. Request a correction by emailing corrections@coloradosun.com.

Municipal bond investors are threatening to leave Colorado if voters adopt a proposed cap on property tax growth, putting the state’s largest source of infrastructure funding for new development in jeopardy.

“We’ve seen investors starting to pull back from the Colorado market,” said Tiffany Leichman, a public finance specialist at Sherman & Howard.

“If that money dries up, development is essentially going to come to a halt.”

The bond market fears have led a growing number of developers and financial industry insiders to speak out against Initiative 50, exposing new fractures in the coalition of business groups, Republican officials and conservative activists who would typically be expected to back a statewide tax cut.

A number of GOP lawmakers have criticized the proposal to amend the constitution, including Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer of Brighton and Rep. Lisa Frizell of Castle Rock, two of the most influential Republicans at the Capitol on fiscal policy. Last week, Jon Caldara of the Independence Institute — who has backed a number of tax-limiting ballot measures of his own — entered the fray, calling it an “unworkable mechanism.”

Brought by conservative political nonprofit Advance Colorado, Initiative 50 would limit annual property tax revenue growth statewide to 4% in an attempt to address the skyrocketing tax bills of recent years. But the measure, which has qualified for the November ballot, would also tie a new constitutional knot around public finance in Colorado, with potentially wide-ranging consequences.

Property taxes are primarily used to fund city and county governments, schools and other local services. But they also help finance private development through special taxing entities like metropolitan districts and urban renewal authorities.


When developers build a new subdivision, they’ll often set up a metro district to finance the project’s infrastructure, such as roads and utilities, as well as community amenities like parks and recreation centers. To pay for it all, they issue tax-exempt bonds that are repaid through the future property tax bills of the community’s residents.

Bond investors worry a 4% statewide cap will trigger local property tax cuts that could prevent them from being paid what they’re owed.

In June, a group of eight law firms sent a letter to Advance Colorado and Colorado Concern, another supporter of the initiative, predicting that the tax-limiting measure would have a “severe” and “immediate” impact on the municipal bond market across the state. In July, the Colorado Municipal Bond Dealers Association weighed in with an open letter of its own, saying Initiative 50 will raise the cost of borrowing for local governments and slow the flow of capital to Colorado.

“I think it’s a dangerous game that we’re playing,” said Zach Bishop, a bond underwriter who heads the special district group at Piper Sandler. “The potential implications of passage of Initiative 50 are an increase in home prices for Coloradans because the land development process becomes more challenging for home builders.”

Karen Crummy, a spokesperson for the campaign in support of Initiative 50, dismissed the concerns in a statement to The Colorado Sun, insisting the measure would reduce housing prices, not increase them.

“These property tax increases are regressive and cruel, especially for young families trying to buy a home, or working-class families and seniors trying to stay in their homes,” Crummy said. “Voters will roll their eyes when they hear politicians, investment bankers and white-shoe lawyers argue that the sky will fall because the state can’t keep every cent of 30%, 40% or even 50% property tax increases.”

WHY 4% ISN’T AS MUCH AS IT APPEARS

We’ve written a lot in this newsletter about Initiative 108, another conservative measure that would cut property taxes by $3 billion. Its eye-popping cost has made it a target for public officials who worry about its impact on state and local government budgets.

But over the long term, Initiative 50 might be the more consequential of the two.

Statewide property tax revenue has grown by less than 4% just 15 times in the past 60 years, a Colorado Sun analysis of Department of Local Affairs data found. That means homeowners can expect the proposed cap to trigger a statewide tax cut more often than not.

Even though 4% is double the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for inflation, critics say it doesn’t allow enough of a cushion for growth and new development. As an example, if you build a $500,000 house on an empty patch of land worth $10,000, that property’s value would jump by 5,000%.

Colorado Concern and Advanced Colorado acknowledged this concern when they introduced other property tax cap proposals this year that had allowances for new development. But those measures didn’t make the ballot, and Initiative 50 has no such protections, leaving it in the hands of elected officials and the courts to decipher.

The tax cuts that would result are likely to lead to lawsuits, Leichman suspects. If special districts cut taxes as required by the amendment, bond holders might sue over a breach of their contract, which typically calls for taxes set at a certain level to repay the debt. If the district doesn’t cut taxes, taxpayers could sue.

Even if courts side with the bond holders, industry insiders say it could still have a chilling effect on new debt, which wouldn’t be protected by contractual guarantees in place before the cap.

Supporters point out that other states have implemented property tax caps without destroying their bond markets. And until 2020, Colorado had a property tax-limiting provision of its own in the Gallagher Amendment.

The difference is Colorado had a system under Gallagher for local jurisdictions to adjust their mill levies upward to cover debt payments when tax cuts were triggered.

Initiative 50 appears to require a statewide vote to exceed the 4% cap. That could take the power to problem-solve out of local officials’ hands.

WHAT TO WATCH

• The Legislative Audit Committee meets at 9 a.m. Monday at the Capitol. See the panel’s agenda here.
• Monday is the deadline for proponents of potential 2024 ballot measures to turn in their signatures to get their initiatives on the November ballot. You can see a full list of the measures that are awaiting approval for the ballot and that have already been approved here.
• An Arapahoe County judge scheduled a hearing for Tuesday morning to reconsider the temporary restraining order she issued preventing members of the Colorado GOP state central committee from holding a vote to oust Chairman Dave Williams.
• A Democratic vacancy committee will meet Thursday to determine the party’s nominee in the toss-up House District 19 after state Rep. Jennifer Parenti abandoned her reelection bid. The district straddles the border of Boulder and Weld counties. The vacancy committee will meet virtually. The candidates who have declared their intention to seek the vacancy appointment are Richard Garcia, Jillaire McMillan, Anil Pesaramelli and Jim Reed.

STORY: Mountain lion hunting ban heads to Colorado voters in November

BALLOT MEASURES

The proponents of several ballot measures reported that they had turned in their voter signatures this week ahead of the Monday deadline. They are the backers of:

• Initiative 145, which would create a new mid-tier veterinary professional position in Colorado
• Initiative 157, which would order the legislature to set aside $350 million for a new peace officer training and support fund
• Initiative 310, which would change Colorado’s primaries so candidates from all parties run against each other, followed by a ranked choice general election

THE NARRATIVE

Lauren Boebert is poised to become the dean of Colorado’s Republican congressional delegation

If U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert wins reelection in November, she’ll be the most senior Republican member of Congress from Colorado and thus effectively the state’s highest ranking GOP official.

She’s trying to play the part.

Behind the scenes, Boebert has been meeting with Republican candidates and offering to support their campaigns. Last week, she offered an adult-in-the-room opinion on the controversy surrounding Colorado GOP Chair Dave Williams. She is trying to unite warring factions of the party.

It’s a far cry from the Boebert that we used to know — the right-wing firebrand quick to spit in the eye of anyone who challenged her or her beliefs. But there is a power vacuum in Republican politics in Colorado right now, and she’s trying to fill it.

“I stand ready to publicly help and provide support to Republicans up and down the ballot, regardless of whether or not I agree with them on every issue,” she said in a Facebook post calling on Williams to “offer support, mend bridges and present a clear gameplan of how we can win together in November.”

A big sign of Boebert being a team player: Boebert’s campaign manager, Drew Sexton, attended a gathering last week to celebrate the opening of a National Republican Congressional Committee battleground office in the 8th Congressional District to benefit GOP candidate Gabe Evans.

Whether or not everyone will embrace Boebert remains to be seen.

By switching congressional districts last year, Boebert angered a long list of Republicans in the 4th Congressional District, where she’s now running for reelection. And not everyone is happy to see her criticizing Williams.

“I’m frankly shocked,” Lisa Frank, a Republican activist who lives in southern Colorado, replied to Boebert’s post about Williams. “After everything everyone has done to get you elected, you come out with division yourself. I believe you should keep us informed on how you’re winning the war for we the people, not dividing Colorado.”

In an email to party activists, Williams seemed to be talking about Boebert when he blasted “those who have supported us in the past but are unable to withstand our critics’ negative pressure.”

The Colorado GOP endorsed Boebert in her primary, and in turn Boebert endorsed Williams in the 5th Congressional District Republican primary.

• Republican campaigns say Colorado GOP turmoil means they are going it alone heading into November
• Republicans air grievances against Colorado GOP Chairman Dave Williams
• La Plata County Republicans will try to oust one of their own over her role in state GOP disunity
  — The Durango Herald

NEW ANTI-BOEBERT PAC

The federal Defeat Boebert PAC was formed on July 19. It’s registered out of Tampa, Florida, though its designated agent is Scott Martinez, a prominent Democratic campaign attorney who lives in Denver. When reached this week by The Unaffiliated, he wouldn’t provide details about the PAC and who is behind it.

As we’ve reported many times before, there are few Republican figures that Democrats can invoke to raise as much money as Boebert.

TRISHA CALVARESE’S FUNDRAISING HAUL

Democrat Trisha Calvarese raised $750,000 in the five weeks after the primary in the 4th Congressional District, where she faces Boebert in November, according to Calvarese’s campaign.

The campaign said the donations came from 24,000 unique donors who gave an average of $23 each. All but 1% of the donations were under $200, according to Calvarese’s team.

“We have momentum, and we’re going to keep going to every community in our district to earn people’s trust, their votes, and to win in November,” Calvarese said in a written statement.

Analysis: It’s not surprising that Calvarese is raising so much money given Boebert’s national profile and how much Democrats loathe her. But don’t read too much into the dollars. Remembe, nearly $15 million was raised by the Democrat who tried — unsuccessfully — to unseat U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene in Georgia.

Meanwhile, Democrat Adam Frisch, who is running in the 3rd Congressional District, where he narrowly lost to Boebert in 2022, sent out a fundraising email seeking to raise money for Calvarese.

Frisch’s fundraising solicitation means he’s now invoking Boebert to raise money both for his campaign — in which he’s facing a different Republican — and Calvarese’s.

“Trisha can finish the job and send Boebert packing,” the missive from Frisch said.

THE POLITICAL TICKER

ELECTION 2024

The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, the nonpartisan election prognosticator known colloquially as Sabato’s Crystal Ball, has changed its competitiveness ratings for two Colorado congressional districts. The group now calls the 8th Congressional District, which is represented by U.S. Rep. Yadira Caraveo, a toss-up, down from “leans Democratic.” The group also now rates the 3rd Congressional District, where Republican Jeff Hurd is battling Democrat Adam Frisch, as “likely Republican,” up from “leans Republican.”

8TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

State Rep. Gabe Evans, a Fort Lupton Republican running to represent the 8th Congressional District against Democratic U.S. Rep. Yadira Caraveo, is buying TV ad time for the coming months, according to contracts filed with the Federal Communication Commission. Some of the air time is on Spanish-language channels. Caraveo, meanwhile, has been blanketing the digital airwaves with ads touting her record as a pediatrician and on abortion. The American Action Network, a conservative political nonprofit, is running digital ads attacking Caraveo over immigration and public safety.

COLORADO LEGISLATURE

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee has named Vivian Smotherman’s state Senate campaign in Senate District 6 a “race to watch” this year. Smotherman, a Durango farmer and Navy veteran, is trying to unseat Republican Sen. Cleave Simpson of Alamosa in a district that leans in Democrats’ favor. It’s unclear if the proclamation will come with financial or technical support for Smotherman. Meanwhile, Simpson has been endorsed by former U.S. Rep. John Salazar, a Democrat. “Put parties and politics aside,” Salazar said in a written statement. “Put our southern and southwest Colorado families, values, needs, and interests first. That’s Cleave Simpson.”

READ MORE

• Trial begins for Tina Peters, Colorado clerk charged in election system breach
• Alarming reports about PERA’s finances spark questions about future of the state’s pension
• FTC chair, Colorado AG pledge to crack down on “abusive and predatory practices” of corporate landlords
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will be on Colorado’s presidential ballot, but Libertarian dispute continues
  — The Denver Post
• Monica M. Márquez becomes Colorado Supreme Court’s first Latina, openly gay chief justice
  — Colorado Public Radio
• Gov. Jared Polis plans to take a sharper interest in this fall’s RTD board elections
  — Colorado Public Radio
• Jason Crow to serve as top Democrat on task force investigating assassination attempt
  — Colorado Newsline

🔑 = source has article meter or paywall

ELECTION 2024

New issue committees form to influence voter opinion on ballot measures

Two new issue committees have formed to influence voter opinion on a pair of measures headed for the November ballot.

Conserve and Protect Our Water will support the initiative referred to the ballot by the legislature that would let the state keep all of the tax revenue generated by sports betting. The tax dollars go toward water projects.

The state can currently only keep $29 million of the revenue. Fiscal forecasts indicate the cap is likely to be exceeded in the next year or two.

The issue committee was formed on July 23 by Brian Jackson, director of Western water for the Environmental Defense Fund.

First Choice Counts, an issue committee formed on July 24 by Jason Lupo, who ran unsuccessfully as a Republican this year for a state House seat, will oppose Initiative 310. That’s the measure that hasn’t made the ballot yet but would change Colorado’s primaries so candidates from all parties run against each other, followed by a ranked choice general election.

Lupo, who lives in Monument, has transformed his campaign website into a site for First Choice Counts.

ABORTION RIGHTS COMMITTEE

Colorado For Protecting Reproductive Freedom, the issue committee supporting the ballot measure that would enshrine abortion access in the state constitution, raised $160,000 between June 27 and July 27, and spent about $100,000 during that time.

The committee had more than $850,000 in the bank heading into August.

VET MEASURES

All Pets Deserve Vet Care, the issue committee supporting two pending ballot measures that would allow for veterinary telehealth and a new, mid-tier veterinary professional position, spent $435,660 during that same span, almost all of which to pay signature gatherers.

The group also raised $250,000 from the ASPCA during that period.

Most of the committee’s funding has come from the Dumb Friends League, which has donated $750,000 to the cause.

THE BIGGER PICTURE

• From North Carolina teen legislative aide to rainmaker. How millions of state dollars helped the climb.
  — The News & Observer
• Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson’s political campaign paid a firm for fundraising help while it lobbied City Hall, spurring calls for reform
  — The Chicago Tribune
• A more media-friendly Kamala Harris runs for president
  — Semafor
• San Diego’s growth plan aims to reverse racial segregation
  — Governing
• Montana town in crosshairs of changing economy
  — ABC News

🔑 = source has article meter or paywall

The Colorado Sun is part of The Trust Project. Read our policies.

Corrections & Clarifications

Notice something wrong? The Colorado Sun has an ethical responsibility to fix all factual errors. Request a correction by emailing corrections@coloradosun.com.

Colorado Democratic Party Chairman Shad Murib has been one of the loudest critics of the state election overhaul being pursued by Kent Thiry, the former CEO of the Denver-based dialysis giant DaVita. Murib has made his opposition clear on social media and during gatherings with Democrats across the state.

But why is he so against the change?

We caught up with Murib to talk about why he opposes Thiry’s ballot measure, which would shift Colorado’s primaries so candidates from all parties run against each other, followed by a ranked choice general election among the top four vote-getters. He believes a ranked choice system would make it harder for candidates who want changes to the political status quo.

“What I think Kent Thiry is trying to do is ideological stagnation that benefits people that have as big a bank account as him,” Murib said. “I don’t think he’s trying to push moderate candidates. I think he’s trying to elect candidates who have the same viewpoints as him, which I would not qualify as moderate.”

Murib said he thinks income inequality is a feature, not a bug, of the nation’s economic system and that people like Thiry have a vested interest in keeping it that way.

The chairman also said that a lack of diverse ideas in politics is a bad thing, and that he sees Thiry’s initiative as leading to more stagnation. Murib believes that having state lawmakers who are devout progressives serving alongside lawmakers who are more moderate Democrats leads to good policy.

“We spent a lot to create the best election system in the country, and for him to just, like, wander in with a few million bucks to try and destroy it — it pisses me off,” Murib said.

HOW DEMOCRATS PLAN TO PUSH BACK

So what do Democrats plan to do about Thiry’s initiative, which still hasn’t qualified for the November ballot?

Colorado Voters First, the Thiry-funded group pushing the initiative, has until Aug. 5 to collect about 125,000 voter signatures to get the measure on the ballot. It will take some time after that for state elections officials to go through the signatures and verify they are sufficient.

Murib said Democrats plan to fight the measure, Initiative 310, by talking about how Colorado already has the gold standard election system and how that system leads to ideological diversity in the two main political parties.

Separately, an issue committee called Voter Rights Colorado formed June 13 to fight the measure. It hadn’t reported spending or raising any money through June 26, but Ellen Dumm, a spokeswoman for the group, said that’s coming.

The groups that are signed onto the coalition behind the issue committee include Colorado Common Cause, New Era Colorado and the Working Families Party.

COLORADO VOTERS FIRST

Colorado Voters First had raised $2.5 million through June 26. Thiry accounted for $1 million of that, while Unite America, which Thiry is on the board of, gave the committee another $1 million.

Walmart heir Ben Walton gave Colorado Voters First $250,000 in June, as did Marc Merrill, a video game developer.

The group will next report its fundraising and spending Aug. 1. Here are some of the consultants it has paid so far:

• Former Colorado GOP Chairman Dick Wadhams
• Republican strategist Tyler Sandberg
• Political consultant Sage Naumann, who was formerly the communications director for the Colorado Senate Republican caucus
• Elections expert Amber McReynolds, who used to lead Denver’s Elections Division and is now on the U.S. Postal Service board of governors 
• Political strategist Curtis Hubbard, who often works with Democratic candidates and causes
• Political strategist Anthony Carlson, who has a history of working with Democratic candidates

WHAT TO WATCH

• Members of the Colorado GOP State Central Committee are scheduled to meet at 9 a.m. Saturday at a church in Brighton to consider removing party Chairman Dave Williams. Williams and his supporters who run the party say the meeting is illegal. The meeting would require participation of at least one-third of the committee’s voting members, with 60% of those voting to remove an officer. A Denver District Court judge Thursday evening rejected a request for an injunction stopping the meeting.

THE NARRATIVE

The 2020 defeat that led a Colorado tenant rights group to find a foothold at the state Capitol

At the height of the pandemic four years ago, tenant advocates huddled in a state Capitol stairwell for a bitter debate: Whether to take what they considered a bad deal, or no deal at all.

With their hopes for a statewide eviction moratorium dashed, they opted for no deal, declining to endorse a proposal during the June 2020 special session that would have let tenants facing eviction stay in their homes an extra four days.

The decision marked a disappointing end to the first foray into state politics for the Community Economic Defense Project, an eviction defense group. But it was also a beginning, said Zach Neumann, the group’s executive director, at an event this week.

“We realized something — we were always going to lose,” Neumann said. “Most of the legislators in that building were completely insulated from what was going on (the eviction crisis). And because of that, we never had the votes.”

But that wasn’t CEDP’s only problem. “None of us had been in that building before,” he said. “And despite our good intentions, we quickly find ourselves struggling to keep up with the landlord lobby, and all of the attorneys that they have in the building. They really know what’s going on — and we really, really don’t.”

With that experience came the realization: “We have to be in the state Capitol,” Neumann said. “We realized that if we aren’t in the building, and more importantly, if our clients aren’t in the building, nothing would ever change.”

After that bad night in the stairwell, Neumann said, CEDP launched a policy team that is now racking up a number of legislative wins alongside its losses.

Chief among them was 2021’s sweeping rewrite of Colorado’s landlord-tenant laws, which established new protections for tenants facing eviction or dire living conditions. This year, the group was also a main backer of House Bill 1098, the “for-cause” eviction measure that limits when landlords can refuse to renew a tenant’s lease.

At its Wednesday night event at Town Hall Collaborative in Denver, CEDP provided a sneak preview of what could be coming next in Colorado’s tenant-landlord fights at the state Capitol.

Melissa Mejía, the group’s head of state and local policy, offered three priorities: improving living conditions, cracking down on corporate landlords and preventing evictions of families with children — a demographic that is evicted more than any other.

“We know that eviction has catastrophic consequences for health outcomes for success in school, for job retention, for mental health — and most of that weight is falling on families with children in the home right now,” Mejía said.

Specific policy proposals are still to come, Neumann told The Colorado Sun.

Two potential housing bills to watch are ones that the legislature has rejected in years past: measures prohibiting landlords from using certain rent-setting software, and allowing local governments to pass rent stabilization ordinances.

The latter got a political boost from President Joe Biden, who recently proposed a 5% cap on rent increases by large corporate landlords. Some Democratic primary winners have campaigned on it in their bids for the state legislature, as well.

Where next year’s legislature will position itself in the landlord-tenant fights remains to be seen. Progressive Democrats that tend to side with tenants are poised to pick up seats in the state Senate, but did poorly in most of their primaries against landlord-backed opponents.

THE POLITICAL TICKER

INITIATIVE 108

Advance Colorado and Colorado Concern, the conservative groups behind Initiative 108, announced this week they had turned in nearly 200,000 signatures to put the tax cut measure on the November ballot. To qualify for the election, the Colorado Secretary of State’s Office must verify around 125,000 of them. The measure would cut residential assessment rates to 5.7% and cut commercial property tax assessments to 24% for a projected $3 billion property tax cut, according to Colorado Legislative Council staff estimates.

TV ADS

Term Limits Action, a federal super PAC associated with the group U.S. Term Limits, is purchasing tens of thousands of dollars in TV ad time in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District in the lead-up to the November election. The committee has reserved time in the Grand Junction and Colorado Springs/Pueblo TV markets from Oct. 7 through Nov. 3 to run ads about Republican Jeff Hurd, a Grand Junction attorney. It’s likely the ads will support Hurd, but we haven’t seen them yet. U.S. Term Limits says its mission is to “enact and defend term limits on elected offices at all levels of government.” Hurd is running against Democrat Adam Frisch in the 3rd District.

THE 8TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

National Democratic nonprofit House Majority Forward is reserving $1 million in TV ads to air in August, aimed at the 8th Congressional District. National super PACs and nonprofits have reserved a total of about $16 million in TV time in the toss-up district where first-term U.S. Rep. Yadira Caraveo, D-Thornton, faces state Rep. Gabe Evans, R-Fort Lupton.

Evans, meanwhile, formed a joint fundraising committee, the Evans Victory Committee, that will allow donors to make a single donation to be split among his congressional campaign, his leadership PAC and the National Republican Congressional Committee.

DNC DOLLARS

Former Colorado House Speaker Crisanta Duran recently asked her 7,400 followers on X to contribute to a GoFundMe to help her pay her way to the Democratic National Convention in Chicago Aug. 19-22. During a Zoom meeting Monday, Colorado Democratic leaders shared similar requests for younger delegates planning to go to the convention.

COLORADO DEMOCRATS

The Colorado Democratic Party raised $839,000 in June. Of that, $725,000 came via donations to the Biden Victory Fund, a joint fundraising committee that allows donors to write a single check with proceeds divided among several committees. Almost all of the money was transferred to the Democratic National Committee, a common practice with joint fundraising donations. Democrats had about $350,000 in cash at the end of June.

READ MORE

• Two Colorado agencies are fighting over information. Now one is charging the other a $30-per-hour research fee.
• Democratic state rep drops reelection bid, may make it harder for party to keep Colorado House supermajority
• Colorado GOP reports spending another $39,000 on mailers for Chairman Dave Williams
• Demand for Colorado’s paid-family and medical leave 44% less than expected
• Federal courts dismiss lawsuits challenging Summit County regulation of short-term rentals
• Colorado Democrats endorse VP Kamala Harris for president
  — Colorado Public Radio
• Private interests are using ballot measures to influence state laws. It’s worrying lawmakers.
  — KUNC
• How Pueblo weaponizes contempt of court to inflate jail time for minor crimes
  — The Denver Post 🔑
• The Colorado Democratic Party says it has dominated the Front Range. Now officials are setting their sights on the Western Slope.
  — The Aspen Times

🔑 = source has article meter or paywall

BLAST FROM THE PAST

How third-party presidential candidates have fared in Colorado in the past

A new poll showing independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is polling at 12% in Colorado got us thinking: How have third-party candidates traditionally fared in Colorado?

Only four third-party presidential candidates have received more than 10% of the vote in Colorado since 1904.

• In 1912, Teddy Roosevelt, running under the Progressive Party banner after serving as a Republican president, won 27% of the presidential vote in Colorado. Democrat Woodrow Wilson won the state with 43% of the vote, while incumbent Republican President William Howard Taft got 22%.
• In 1924, Progressive Party candidate Robert La Follette, a former Republican, got 17.5% of the presidential vote in Colorado, while Republican Calvin Coolidge, the ultimate winner, got 49%. Democrat John Davis got 19%.
• In 1980, U.S. Rep. John Anderson, a former Republican, took 11% of the presidential vote in Colorado while running on the National Unity Campaign ticket. Republican Ronald Reagan got 55% of Colorado’s vote while defeating incumbent Democratic President Jimmy Carter, who got 31%.
• In 1992, Texas businessman Ross Perot took 23% of the vote while running as an independent candidate. Democrat Bill Clinton got 40% to defeat Republican President George H.W. Bush, who received 36%.

Kennedy’s campaign submitted signatures to try to get on the ballot in Colorado as an independent candidate, though the Colorado Libertarian Party is also seeking to make him their candidate in the state.

The deadline for state elections officials to review his signatures is Aug. 1.

• RFK Jr. probably won’t be the Libertarian nominee in Colorado, Chase Oliver will
  — Colorado Public Radio
• Robert Kennedy and Cornel West third-party ballot drives are pushed by secretive groups and Republican donors
  — The Associated Press

AN ODE TO FISH

A legend retires

This is Fish’s last edition of The Unaffiliated as she enters retirement starting Monday following decades as a journalist in Colorado, Florida and beyond.

There’s no one quite like Fish —both in personality and professional prowess. There are talents she has that no one can replicate, though they may try. Her institutional knowledge is unmatched. There is no more considerate colleague. She was recently named Colorado’s journalist of the year.

Since Fish is ever the technologist, we asked ChatGPT to help us with a goodbye sonnet honoring her storied career:

In Colorado’s hills, where the Rockies rise,
Resides a journalist with purple hair,
Decades she’s chased stories with great flair,
From motorcycles to classrooms, she’d go.

Her mastery in campaign finance clear,
She’s shaped our land of Capitol peaks and sky,
A colleague trusted, in every try,
Through her tenacity, change did appear.

At a Pueblo convention, she faced the stormy tide,
Exiled for doing her duty true,
Yet never faltering, her spirit flew,
Catching Pokémon, heart open wide.

Now, as retirement’s gentle bells chime near,
She’ll knit tales of wisdom, memories dear.

From Jesse: A personal thanks to Fish for helping me through so many professional and personal challenges. She’s a great friend and mentor and I’ve learned so much from her. I’ll miss her dearly! I feel bad for all the Pokémon she’ll now have time to catch. No ball of yarn is safe from her knitting needles.

From Fish: Attention embarasses me! But thanks so much to everyone at The Colorado Sun for giving me the opportunity to work with you and geek out for the past six years. You’ve been such wonderful — and fun — colleagues.

Thanks also to the folks who’ve been answering my endless questions for decades now. This work couldn’t be done without you.

And to Colorado Sun readers — and especially our members — thanks for your attention and input. Keep it up!

THE BIGGER PICTURE

• State AGs ramp up scrutiny of alleged price-fixing in rental housing
  — Stateline
• Democrats run the California Capitol. When the party backs a bill, lawmakers pay attention.
  — CalMatters
• Companies are reshaping operations to cope with a changing climate
  — The Washington Post 🔑
• Who can achieve the American Dream? Race matters less than it used to.
  — The New York Times 🔑

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When Colorado politicians and advocacy groups talk about the need for affordable housing, there are three professions that come up again and again: teachers, nurses and firefighters.

It’s a potent line in a politically fraught debate, aimed at overcoming the stigma of low-income housing at the local level. After all, who doesn’t support having a place in their community for the people who teach their kids, treat their sick and keep their neighborhoods safe?

With the passage of Proposition 123, the 2022 low-income housing ballot measure, campaign leader Gary Community Ventures proclaimed that “our teachers, nurses and firefighters will have a chance to stay in the communities they serve.”

But a line that has long served as a talking point for low-income housing is now being deployed by those who favor expanding government affordable housing programs to the middle class, as we wrote about this week.

“We’re working on creating housing that’s affordable for all those people — nurses, teachers and firefighters,” said Sen. Jeff Bridges, a Democrat from Greenwood Village, who sponsored the legislation creating Colorado’s new middle income housing tax credit.

“Firefighters in Breckenridge don’t qualify under the limits that low-income housing advocates want. Teachers barely qualify under the limits.” In some jobs, he added, “nurses, teachers and firefighters make above 120% of AMI (area median income).” At that level, they don’t qualify for traditional affordable rental housing, but still make far too little to afford the median home in Summit County, which now sells for close to $1 million.

So if both sides of the affordable housing debate are using the same line, it raises the question: How much do teachers, nurses and firefighters actually make?

The answer depends on where they live — and how much experience they have. But the bottom line is that people working in all three professions hover somewhere around the cutoff line to qualify for traditional affordable housing programs. As a result, sometimes they can live in affordable units, and sometimes they can’t.

The median household income in Colorado in 2022 was just shy of $90,000. That puts the income cutoff for most affordable rental housing at somewhere around $50,000 to $70,000, but that limit fluctuates by county and household size.

In 2023, the median Colorado teacher made around $63,000, according to state labor data. The median registered nurse made $91,734; and the median firefighter earned $75,000.

Entry-level wages look a little different: $46,000 for teachers, $72,297 for nurses and $51,000 firefighters at the start of their career.

If you include health care practitioners other than nurses, wages can drop significantly. Entry-level social workers, for instance, make about $44,000, while entry-level health technicians make just $41,000 — well below the levels needed to qualify for affordable housing just about anywhere in Colorado.

Pay can fluctuate by tens of thousands of dollars depending on the county. The median teacher in Boulder County, for instance, makes over $80,000. That’s about $20,000 more than one in Pitkin County — even though both counties have similar median incomes overall. As a result, the average teacher in Pitkin County might qualify for low-income housing while one in Boulder might not.

Bottom line: When housing proponents say they want to house “teachers, nurses and firefighters,” it could mean a lot of different things.

STORY: Colorado is steering affordable housing money to the middle class — and away from the working poor

WHO QUALIFIES FOR LOW-INCOME HOUSING?

A few job types stand out consistently in local housing need assessments.

Summit County’s 2023 housing study found that those who work in construction, hotels and restaurants and retail are the most likely to rent and make less than 40% of the area median income. A 2023 report from low-income housing developer Enterprise Community Partners found that janitors, child care workers and emergency medical technicians tend to make lower-income wages, too — both in Summit and urban job markets like Denver.

But in Summit, government workers, health care professionals and those who work in schools tend to make more than 80% of the area median income — a stat that helps underscore the pressure from mountain communities to expand who can benefit from state affordable housing dollars.

“What we see is that fewer and fewer families, particularly families with two income earners, actually qualify for that housing that is 60% of AMI or below,” said Tamara Pogue, a Summit County commissioner.

Nonetheless, many who work in those essential professions still make less, the study shows. In Summit, 1 in 4 people who work in education make less than $75,000, while 19% and 14% of health care and state and local government employees do, respectively.

“I think it’s really important to pull the whole conversation out of this idea of area median income, and into reality,” said Kinsey Hasstedt, the state and local policy director for Enterprise Community Partners. “There are still a lot of people in those very same professions that are getting named who are earning far less than 140% or 160%” of the area median — the income levels that the state now subsidizes.

WHAT TO WATCH

• July 26 is the deadline for a mandatory recount ordered this week by state elections officials in the House District 58 Republican primary in western Colorado must be completed. Paonia rancher J. Mark Roeber and former Montzuma County Commissioner Larry Don Suckla are separated by just three votes. Suckla has the lead. 

OPPOSITION TO PROPERTY TAX MEASURES FORMS

Coloradans for Local Communities will be the issue committee battling Initiative 108 and its companion measure, Initiative 50, which would limit property tax growth to 4% a year and is already on the ballot.

The group is being led by Scott Wasserman, the former head of the Bell Policy Center, a liberal policy nonprofit. He recently stepped down from the Bell to start a consulting firm.

The group has raised about $40,000 so far, including $15,000 from the Bell Action Network, the political nonprofit associated with the Bell Policy Center; $10,000 each from the Colorado Fund for Children and Public Education and the Colorado Children’s Campaign Fund; and $3,000 from the Special District Association of Colorado.

THE NARRATIVE

A bleaker Colorado Senate picture for Republicans

A closer look at the Colorado Senate map paints a bleak picture for Republicans trying to defend against a Democratic supermajority in the chamber this year.

Democrats hold a 23-12 majority in the Senate, one seat shy of a supermajority, and the party will be defending two competitive seats in November and trying to pick up three others.

The districts with state Senate races this year will be up for grabs for the first time since their boundaries were redrawn in the 2021 redistricting process, so it’s hard to gauge how competitive they will be.

But an analysis of precinct- and county-level 2022 election results in the districts provided to The Unaffiliated paints a dire picture for Republicans.

Take Senate District 5 in western and northwestern Colorado, where state Rep. Marc Catlin, R-Montrose, is running against Democrat Cole Buerger, a small business owner who lives in Glenwood Springs.

The district, currently represented by outgoing Sen. Perry Will, a New Castle Republican, was estimated through a nonpartisan analysis of election results between 2016 and 2020 completed during the state’s redistricting process to lean 3 percentage points in the GOP’s favor. But in 2022, Gov. Jared Polis won the district by 10 percentage points, while U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet won it by 6 percentage points and Attorney General Phil Weiser won by 3 percentage points.

Democrat Kathy Plomer, who was running for an at-large seat on the state Board of Education, lost the district by less than 1 point. She was the only Democrat running statewide in 2022 who lost in the district.

Will was appointed to the Senate district seat by a vacancy committee and is running for Garfield County commissioner instead of seeking another term.

Some other highlights from the analysis:

• Senate District 12: Rep. Marc Snyder, D-Manitou Springs, is running against El Paso County Commissioner Stan VanderWerf in the El Paso County-centered district. The redistricting analysis estimated the district, currently represented by term-limited Republican Sen. Bob Gardner, leans 2 percentage points in Republicans’ favor. But Polis won it in 2022 by 14 points, Bennet by 9 points and Weiser by 5 points. Plomer won it by 3 points.
• Senate District 13: Republican Scott Bright, who owns a chain of child care centers, is running against Brighton City Councilman Matt Johnston in a district that spans Adams and Weld counties. It was estimated during redistricting to lean 4 percentage points in Republicans’ favor and is currently represented by Democratic Sen. Kevin Priola, who is term-limited. In 2022, Polis lost in the district by 2 points, while Bennet lost by 4 points and Weiser by 8 points. Plomer also lost the district by 8 points, suggesting that Republicans have a solid chance of flipping it.
• Senate District 16: Democratic Sen. Chris Kolker of Centennial is running for reelection against Centennial City Councilwoman Robyn Carnes, a Republican, in the south suburban district that the redistricting analysis said was a true toss-up. The 2022 results, however, show Democrats have a major advantage. Polis won the district by 17 points, while Bennet won by 11 points and Weiser won by 8 points. Plomer also won by 8 points. 

Carnes and the Colorado GOP used The Sun’s reporting about the redistricting analysis of prior election results in Senate District 16 in fundraising emails sent out last week.

STORY: Colorado Democrats will battle in November to keep the Republican-leaning legislative districts they won in 2022

CAMPAIGN FINANCE

Ike McCorkle asks donors to send money to combat effect of Trump assassination attempt as part of new “partnership” with PAC

Democrat Ike McCorkle, hot off his primary loss in Colorado’s 4th Congressional District, is now raising money for a liberal super PAC.

His first fundraising solicitation: the day after the attempted assassination of Donald Trump, and asking people to “rush a donation of $5, $50, $500, or even $5,000” to combat how the former president will be showered with “attention, sympathy, coverage and funding.”

“The heinous violence … is a symptom of the politics created by one man — Donald Trump. This is another link in the chain of events he set in motion on Jan. 6,” a text from McCorkle said. “This is the road that Donald Trump set us on. And it’s up to us to change course.”

McCorkle, a Marine veteran, added: “These events will make defeating Trump electorally exponentially harder.”

A text and Facebook post from McCorkle say he planned to roll out his new “partnership” with Turn Left PAC, which was created in May 2023, later on, but that the assassination attempt moved up his timeline.

The political action committee’s address is listed as West Virginia. The group says it is working to flip red seats blue.

Three of the people the PAC has paid — Alexandra Kefalas, John Debona and Steven Hall — also received money this year from, or were associated with, McCorkle’s campaign. Another connection between the PAC and McCorkle’s campaign is C2G Strategies, a political consulting firm based in Texas that has been paid by both by McCorkle’s campaign and the PAC.

We interviewed McCorkle and asked him if it was appropriate to invoke the assassination attempt in a fundraising solicitation so soon after the shooting happened. He didn’t answer directly, but said it’s absolutely appropriate to fundraise to defend American democracy.

“I think that the democratic republic is on the line,” he said. “So appropriate or not, the situation is what it is.”

McCorkle said he got involved with Turn Left PAC through his campaign manager, David Graham, and that the group plans to put up billboards and send out digital and text messages to voters across the country in districts where he thinks Democrats can — and need help to — win. He said some of the money would be spent in Colorado, including in the 4th District.

McCorkle was running this year for a third straight cycle in the 4th District. He lost to Republican U.S. Rep. Ken Buck by 23 percentage points in 2020 and 2022. This year, he lost in the Democratic primary in the 4th District to Trisha Calvarese by 4 percentage points.

McCorkle ended June with $255,000 still in his congressional campaign account, money he raised after Republican U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert jumped into the 4th District race.

He said the money will “fund future campaigns and current federal campaigns that have a chance of flipping the House.” McCorkle said he “100% will be running again” in the 4th District in 2026 —and he can hang onto that $255,000 until the next election cycle.

By comparison, Democrat John Padora, who came in a distant third place in the Democratic primary in the 4th District, had only $23,000 left in his campaign account at the end of last month.

THE POLITICAL TICKER

CAMPAIGN FINANCE

Most of the money behind a committee that spent nearly $656,000 unsuccessfully trying to help Aurora attorney Idris Keith beat state Rep. Mike Weissman in the Democratic primary in Senate District 28 came from Good Leadership Action Inc., a corporation registered in Delaware, where the state doesn’t make the names of business owners public. The corporation was formed May 10, three days before the federal super PAC, Democracy Wins, it donated $600,000 to was formed. The super PAC gave that money to the Colorado group Brighter Futures Colorado 527, which then donated most of that cash to Representation Matters, the committee that worked to help Keith beat Weissman. Because of the financial web, it’s unlikely the true source of the Representation Matters’ funding will ever be revealed.

CONGRESS

U.S. Rep. Greg Lopez has been appointed to the House Budget and Science, Space and Technology committees. He will serve on the Budget Committee’s health care task force. Lopez is serving out the term of former U.S. Rep. Ken Buck, which ends in early January.

5TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

Jeff Crank, the Republican nominee in Colorado’s 5th Congressional District, formed a leadership PAC, America’s Mountain PAC, and became part of a joint fundraising committee, the Crank Victory Fund, this week. Checks written to the joint fundraising committee will be divided among Crank’s campaign, his leadership PAC and the National Republican Congressional Committee.

3RD CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

Democrat Adam Frisch will begin airing TV ads Tuesday for his campaign against Republican Jeff Hurd, a Grand Junction attorney, in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District. Contracts filed with the Federal Communications Commission indicate the ads will air through at least early August. The former Aspen city councilman has also reserved $2.4 million worth of TV ad time for the fall.

READ MORE

• Democrats in Colorado’s two most competitive congressional districts have big cash advantages
• Democrat Adam Frisch turns to abortion to win in Colorado’s Republican-leaning 3rd Congressional District
• Republican Gabe Evans is paying himself a salary out of his 8th Congressional District campaign account
• Two-week trial begins in lawsuit challenging Colorado’s campaign contribution limits
• Political nonprofit tied to Jared Polis admits to violating Colorado’s campaign finance laws, will reveal donors
• Xcel Energy is unsure it can meet Colorado’s clean-energy goals at the cost it promised
• Trump “fine” after deadly shooting at Pennsylvania rally. Here’s how Colorado leaders are reacting.
  — The Associated Press
• Former Mesa County Clerk Tina Peters is now under home confinement and wearing an ankle monitor
  — The Daily Sentinel 🔑
• Colorado Gov. Jared Polis is named chair of National Governors Association
  — The Denver Post 🔑
• Scott Bottoms says FBI behind attempted assassination of Trump
  — 9News

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YOU HEARD IT HERE

Crow made that comment a day after he joined about 100 other congressional Democrats on a call with Biden that by all accounts went poorly.

Biden was particularly unhappy with a question from Crow, who, according to a person familiar with the congressman’s remarks, said: “National security is a major issue in this campaign. Americans want a commander in chief who can project strength, vigor and inspire confidence at home and abroad. They need to feel that you have the helm when they go to bed each night.”

The person requested anonymity because they weren’t authorized to share what was said on the call.

Politico reported that those words set Biden off.

“I don’t want to hear that crap,” Biden said, according to Politico, which reported that the president raised “his voice in a forceful defense of his foreign policy record, including the rebuilding of NATO.”

Crow also pressed Biden on his strategy to beat Donald Trump in November, days before the former president accepted the nomination from a unified Republican party at its convention in Milwaukee.

“The status quo won’t work. Focusing just on Trump won’t work. Focusing on our accomplishments won’t work. What major change to your campaign do you propose?” Crow asked, according to the person familiar with the congressman’s question.

• Hickenlooper says Biden stepping aside “would be in the best interests of the country”
  — Reuters
• Trump accepts GOP nomination, bullet wound to his ear and electoral wind at his back
  — The Wall Street Journal 🔑

THE BIGGER PICTURE

• What is J.D. Vance’s vision for the economy?
  — The Washington Post 🔑
• Red-state cities and suburbs are becoming more diverse
  — Stateline
• “Gods in the building”: How the Texas Senate buries sexual harassment complaints and enables bad actors
  — Texas Monthly

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Joe Biden is losing ground in Colorado.

That’s the takeaway from a poll conducted before the president’s bad debate performance that showed him leading Donald Trump by 6 percentage points.

The poll was conducted by Global Strategy Group, a Democratic firm that accurately predicted 2022 election outcomes in Colorado, among 800 registered voters from June 17-24. It had a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points, meaning Biden’s lead could be as small as 2.5 points or as large as 9.5 points.

That’s much less than the 13.5-point margin he beat Trump by in Colorado in 2020. One reason: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

The poll showed the independent presidential candidate capturing 12% of the vote in Colorado, with Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 3% and Cornel West, another independent candidate, at 2%. (Kennedy is slated to appear on Colorado’s ballot as a Libertarian, while West is slated to appear under the Unity Party banner.)

Biden had 42% of the vote, according to the poll, while Trump had 36% and 5% were undecided.

In a two-way race, the poll showed Biden leading Trump by 10 percentage points, with 50% of the vote to Trump’s 40%. (Hence the Kennedy-as-spoiler analysis above.)

Whether Kennedy actually gets on Colorado’s ballot remains to be seen. Libertarians are fighting over whether he or the party’s national nominee, Chase Oliver, should get the presidential ballot slot in Colorado in a battle that could end up in court. Kennedy also turned in voter signatures Thursday to appear on Colorado’s ballot as an unaffiliated candidate, so he has an insurance policy assuming his campaign collected a sufficient number.

Kennedy needs to have gathered 1,500 signatures from voters in each of the state’s eight congressional districts to make the ballot. His campaign said it turned in more than 30,000 in total, but it’s unclear if those meet the district requirement. State elections officials have until Aug. 1 to review the signatures.

Again, this poll was conducted before Biden’s poor debate performance on June 27, after which his numbers slipped nationally. It’s fair to assume they slipped in Colorado, too, meaning — at least on paper — that the state appears to be in play.

Andrew Baumann, the Global Strategies Group pollster who conducted the survey, indicated Democrats shouldn’t worry too much.

He said Colorado is “definitely not in play” and that while Biden is underperforming a bit relative to his 2020 margin, “it’s important to note that Trump hasn’t gained vote share, Biden has lost votes to undecideds.” A GSG polling memo also says Biden’s support has dropped among some key subgroups: unaffiliated voters, Denver metro voters, younger voters, and, especially, voters of color.

Baumann also said polls always overtstate support for third-party candidates, but that it’s clear that they will hurt Biden in Colorado. If Kennedy isn’t on the ballot, he predicts Biden runs away with the race again.

Finally, Baumann said while it’s very possible Biden’s numbers have dropped in Colorado after the debate, the impact may be smaller here given that it’s proven to be such an anti-Trump state.

STORY: Michael Bennet says Biden can’t beat Trump as other Democrats express concerns in private but stay quiet in public

THE DENVER POST: Colorado’s pro-RFK Jr. Libertarians face presidential ballot showdown with national party

X: U.S. Rep. Brittany Pettersen calls on Joe Biden to step aside

WHAT A SMALLER BIDEN MARGIN OF VICTORY MAY MEAN

Even if the state is not in play, a smaller margin of victory for Biden in Colorado would likely have down-ballot effects.

We’re looking at you, 3rd and 8th congressional districts, as well as all of those Republican-leaning legislative seats Democrats won in 2022.

Forty-two percent of those polled said they had a favorable view of Biden, while 55% said they had an unfavorable view of him. By comparison, 48% said they had a favorable view of Democrats in Colorado, while 42% said they had an unfavorable view of them.

For Trump, 39% of those polled said they had a favorable view of him, while 58% said they had an unfavorable view. Republicans were faring slightly worse, with 38% saying they had a favorable view of them and 51% saying they had an unfavorable view.

Fifty-one percent of those polled said they had a favorable view of Gov. Jared Polis, compared with the 40% who said they had an unfavorable view of him. Fifty-four percent said they approved of the governor’s job performance.

The poll also tested Initiative 50, the property tax measure on the November ballot. After being read the measure’s language, 44% said they would vote no, while 34% said they would vote yes and 22% said they were completely unsure how they would vote on the question.

DENVER POLL

The Colorado Polling Institute this week released the results of a recent poll of Denver voters.

Forty-eight percent of participants said they had a favorable view of Mayor Mike Johnston, while 38% said they had an unfavorable view of him. That’s worse than in August 2023, just after Johnston took office, when 46% said they had a favorable view of him and 22% said they had an unfavorable view.

“Voters have had some time to form some opinions,” said Kevin Ingham, who runs Aspect Strategic, a Democratic firm that conducted the poll alongside New Bridge Strategy, a Republican firm.

Conversely, 50% of those polled said Denver is headed in the right direction, while 46% said it’s on the wrong track. In August 2023, 44% each said the city was headed in the right direction or on the wrong track.

The poll was conducted between June 13 and 18 among 409 registered Denver voters. It had a margin of error of 4.85 percentage points.

AXIOS DENVER: New Denver tax plan will test voters’ appetite for rate hike

YOU HEARD IT HERE

Democrats are battling this year to maintain their supermajority in the House, and it may not be easy given the growing questions about Biden’s mental fitness. If they lose just three seats they won’t have a supermajority anymore.

If McCluskie has concerns about the election, she’s not expressing them. She said she’s “confident our caucus is going to maintain our supermajority.”

STORY: Colorado Democrats will battle in November to keep the Republican-leaning legislative districts they won in 2022

JOE BIDEN

Biden is scheduled to hold a fundraiser in Denver on July 28

President Joe Biden is scheduled to return to Denver on July 28 to attend a fundraiser with Gov. Jared Polis.

A flyer for the event says it will be hosted by Democratic mega donor Tim Gill, a Coloradan who made a fortune as a software entrepreneur. Gill’s husband, Scott Miller, was nominated by Biden to serve as the U.S. ambassador to Switzerland and Liechtenstein. Miller has held the job since 2021.

Biden last visited Colorado in November, when he attended a fundraiser with Polis in Cherry Hills Village and then stopped in Pueblo to tour the CS Wind plant and make remarks. He focused his message during that trip on attacking Republican U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert.

Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have spent a significant amount of time in Colorado over the past 14 months. Assuming Biden’s Denver fundraiser happens, each will have visited the state at least three times in that span.

Our takeaway: There must be a lot of campaign cash here since, electorally speaking, other states are much more important.

WHAT TO WATCH

• A federal trial is scheduled to begin Monday in the 2022 case filed by several Republicans seeking to overturn Colorado’s state-level campaign finance limits. The lead plaintiff in the case is U.S. Rep. Greg Lopez, who was running for governor at the time the lawsuit was filed. The trial is scheduled to last two weeks.
• Quarterly campaign finance reports are due Monday for federal candidates. They’ll reflect fundraising and spending between June 6 and June 30, so we’ll get a final look at primary spending. 
• The legislature’s Capital Development Committee meets at 9 a.m. Tuesday at the Capitol.

THE POLITICAL TICKER

COLORADO LEGISLATURE

The Colorado House Workplace Harassment Committee on Wednesday voted unanimously to hire a third-party investigator to review a complaint. While the complaint is confidential — including who filed it and against whom it was filed — in order for it to fall under the panel’s purview it must have been lodged against a lawmaker or partisan staffer. The investigation marks just the second time the committee has been convened to review a complaint. The last one, filed last year, ended with no action.

8TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

Attack ads against U.S. Rep. Yadira Caraveo, D-Thornton, are mounting in the 8th Congressional District as Republicans seek to dislodge her from the district that spans from Denver’s northeast suburbs along U.S. 85 into Greeley. A new digital ad from the National Republican Congressional Campaign accuses Caraveo of covering up President Joe Biden’s apparent lack of mental fitness. The NRCC didn’t respond to questions about how much it would spend to air the ad, just that it was “more a messaging ad than anything else.” On July 25, American Action Network, a nonprofit that doesn’t disclose its donors, will begin airing TV ads in the district about immigration.Those ads will air on TV and digital platforms at a cost of about $650,000 through mid-August. Caraveo faces state Rep. Gabe Evans, R-Fort Lupton, in November.

LAUREN BOEBERT

A federal judge Monday dismissed the defamation lawsuit filed by American Muckrakers PAC against U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert after the two sides reached a settlement. The PAC has been a longtime antagonizer of the Republican congresswoman. Details of the settlement weren’t revealed.

READ MORE

• Faith Winter violated Colorado Senate ethics policy by appearing to be intoxicated at community meeting, panel rules
• New law will make it tougher for Colorado HOAs to foreclose on homes
• Despite 70% opt-out rate, Keep Colorado Wild Passes program delivers more revenue than forecast
• As the BLM plans another wild horse roundup, Colorado officials wonder about the point of new mustang task force 
• Slaughterhouse ban on Denver ballot targets one 70-year-old business
• Colorado AG steps into battle over a fence that’s pitted San Luis Valley locals against a billionaire  
• Southern Ute Indian Tribe sues Colorado governor, gaming division over sports betting
• Colorado’s first Firehawk is finally ready to fight fires. But that doesn’t mean it will be called to the next one.
• Were all Colorado Supreme Court justices appointed by Democrats?
• Colorado lobbyists were paid nearly $70 million in the last year. These 5 bills show their influence on policy.
  — The Denver Post 🔑
• KNUS cans Corporon amid legal woes
  — Colorado Times Recorder
• A sentence in a new state law has scrambled the plumbing industry
  — 9News 
• What three statehouse primaries tell us about the direction of Colorado politics
  — Colorado Public Radio
• Colorado Republican Greg Lopez sworn in to complete remainder of resigned Ken Buck’s term
  — Colorado Politics 🔑

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THE NARRATIVE

Another statewide “debrucing” question is on the horizon. Why does this keep happening?

Stop us if you’ve heard this one before: Colorado lawmakers may need to ask taxpayers for permission to keep millions of dollars in excess revenue generated by a tax that voters recently approved.

This time it’s Proposition FF, the 2022 ballot measure to fund a school meal program. The latest estimates show it may have collected $26 million more than forecast last budget year, which ended June 30.

If those projections hold up, it would mark the third time in three years lawmakers would have to go back to the ballot and ask voters to keep all of the revenue generated by a tax increase they already passed once.

Remember that under Colorado’s Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights, voters are effectively asked two questions in one: Whether to raise the tax rate, and whether to raise revenue by whatever specific dollar amount those higher taxes are expected to generate.

If the tax hike generates more money than expected, the government has to either give back the difference, or ask voters if it can keep the extra dollars. That’s known as “debrucing,” named after former state Rep. Douglas Bruce, the conservative firebrand behind TABOR.

Before 2023, such ballot questions were rare — the last time it happened was 2015. But now it’s happened two years in a row — and a third question could appear on the November 2025 ballot if current trends continue.

In November, voters agreed to allow the state to spend $24 million in excess nicotine and tobacco taxes, after revenue collections exceeded the forecasts for 2020’s Proposition EE in the state voter guide, known as the Blue Book. Those dollars help to fund preschool programming.

This year, lawmakers referred a measure asking to keep $29 million in extra sports gambling revenue, which is earmarked for water projects.

Next year, funding for the Healthy School Meals for All program could be at stake. Initial estimates from Colorado Legislative Council Staff show Proposition FF — which took away some tax breaks for those making more than $300,000 — generated $127 million for the 2023-24 budget year, blowing past its $101 million estimate. Next year, legislative analysts expect it to grow to $132 million. The governor’s Office of State Planning and Budgeting expects similar totals.

If the projections hold up, the governor’s office says the tax could generate enough to cover the entire cost of the school meals program — wiping out a funding shortfall that threatened to upend the state budget this spring.

That would be good news for the State Education Fund, which was on tap to plug the shortfall. But it’s also somewhat puzzling news for voters who, for the third year in a row, could be asked to approve a tax increase they already agreed to.

A 50-50 CHANCE OF EXCESS TAXES

Greg Sobetski, the top economist for Colorado Legislative Council Staff, told the Joint Budget Committee last month that it shouldn’t come as a surprise when ballot measures collect more than expected. In reality, there’s usually a 50-50 chance that they will.

Legislative staff forecasts are always the midpoint of a range of possible outcomes. Half the time tax collections should land a little above the estimate, and half of the time they should fall below it.

But, Sobetski said, the dollar amount that the state can collect isn’t necessarily tied to legislative forecasts. To determine whether the state owes taxpayers a refund, the state defers to either the number in the Blue Book or what’s written into the ballot question, whichever is lower. As a result, Sobetski said legislative staff always write the Blue Book to match the ballot question so legislative analysts don’t cause a TABOR refund by being the lower of the two estimates.

That suggests lawmakers could bake in some wiggle room when they send a tax increase to the voters by using a higher forecast in their ballot language.

“My advice to members of the General Assembly is to be cautious about the amount that you put in those ballot questions,” Sobetski told the JBC in June.

But there’s a political downside to that, too. Higher numbers could make the tax hikes look bigger than they are, making voters less likely to approve them. They would also run the risk of overpromising money for popular government programs — like free school meals for kids — that depend on that revenue.

In the face of a potential shortfall, lawmakers earlier this year considered whether to cut back the program to provide meals to fewer kids — a choice no one wanted to make.

“This has been such a roller coaster watching the revenue for Prop. FF and trying to make sure that we are always addressing this responsibly and making sure that program is funded and doing best by our kids,” said JBC Chair Shannon Bird, a Westminster Democrat.

THE BIGGER PICTURE

• We spoke to 50 Democratic Georgia delegates. Nearly all back Biden.
  — The Atlanta Journal Constitution 🔑
• Gas taxes can’t pay for roads much longer, but Amazon deliveries might
  — Stateline
• Kevin McCarthy’s revenge tour rolls on, with mixed results
  — The New York Times 🔑
• Milder inflation opens door wider to September rate cut
  — The Wall Street Journal  🔑

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Corrections & Clarifications

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To hear the two sides argue about Initiative 108 — the proposed $3 billion property tax cut that would cut the residential property assessment rate to 5.7% — one would think they were describing two completely different proposals.

And in one important way, they effectively are.

State legislative analysts and the governor’s office say the ballot measure would force state lawmakers to come up with $2.25 billion to $3 billion in budget cuts to reimburse local governments and school districts for their lost revenue. Opponents of the measure have seized on that to describe it as a budgetary doomsday device that would lead to recession-like cuts to K-12, Medicaid and higher education just to name a few.

Meanwhile, the conservative backers of the measure, Colorado Concern and Advance Colorado, say the state would only be on the hook to replace $200 million in lost revenue. That’s a sizable sum, but far from the financial crisis of the scenario above.

So what gives? Supporters of the tax cut aren’t quibbling with the legislative staff forecasts of how much it would cut local property taxes. The more significant difference between the two numbers is that they fundamentally disagree on what the measure would require the state to do.

The text of the ballot measure requires the state “General Fund to reimburse local districts for lost revenue as a result of passage of this measure.”

To Legislative Council Staff, “lost revenue” is the money that the state would have collected if the ballot measure never happened. This is common practice among budget analysts. The difference between current law and the proposed change in law is what they use to write fiscal notes and the state voter guide, known as the Blue Book.

Backers of the measure, though, told The Colorado Sun that’s not how they interpret their own proposal.

To them, “lost revenue” only refers to situations where a local government has less money to spend than they did the year before the measure takes effect.

In other words, if a certain library district’s tax revenue would have grown from $10 million to $11 million, but instead it falls to $9 million, the state would only be responsible for getting the library back up to $10 million under the proponents’ interpretation.

In year two, if the library is back to $10 million after another year of property tax growth, that’s it — the state’s off the financial hook. Likewise, if a local agency’s revenue grew by $5 million instead of $8 million, the state wouldn’t owe anything at all.

“They misinterpret our backfill language,” Karen Crummy, a spokesperson for the campaign, told The Sun in an email. “Legislative Council is trying to say that this simple, broad and flexible definition — ‘revenue lost’ — actually means that the state has to backfill every dollar that local districts would have collected if Coloradans weren’t given property tax relief.”

So what does this disagreement mean for November — and possibly beyond, if voters approve it?

It’s not clear. Lawmakers tend to defer to their own legislative analysts and lawyers when writing legislation and interpreting what it demands of them. Then again, intent matters, too. When there’s disagreement over what the plain language of a statute means, courts often look to what the authors of a measure intended.

THE IMPLICATIONS OF “LOST REVENUE”

Whether you accept the legislative staff interpretation or the conservatives’ take on the proposal, many of the critics of Initiative 108 would oppose the tax cut either way.

But the implications are quite different if you accept Colorado Concern’s version of how it would work.

Local governments would be forced to live with less money, but the state would be spared from the full brunt of the property tax cuts. That would avoid the worst state budget scenarios envisioned by Mark Ferrandino, the director of the governor’s Office of State Planning and Budgeting.

Still, no matter what “lost revenue” the measure applies to, the school finance implications would be similar.

Remember: The single biggest reason the state was able to eliminate the budget stabilization factor and met its constitutional requirements to fund K-12 education has been the explosive growth in local property taxes over the past several years.

Initiative 108 — combined with Initiative 50, which would set a 4% annual cap on property tax revenue — seeks to limit that growth in the future.

That means that to meet its school funding obligations, the state would have to tighten its belt in other areas, like Medicaid and higher education.

Under Colorado Concern’s own estimates, which were provided to The Sun, school districts would collect nearly $800 million less in the 2025 tax year under their measure than they would under current law.

Even if that’s not considered “lost revenue,” the state is still on the hook to cover that in order to keep schools fully funded under Amendment 23 to the state constitution.

Two other caveats to keep in mind:

• Legislative Council staff came up with its analysis back in January, before lawmakers passed Senate Bill 233, which cut property taxes. Expect the numbers to change when the Blue Book comes out.
• Colorado Concern’s numbers rely on estimates of statewide property tax revenue, projecting it will fall from around $15.2 billion to $15 billion in year one. But the measure requires reimbursements to each district that loses revenue. That means a statewide drop of $200 million could mean larger losses in some communities that are obscured by gains in others. If so, the state could be responsible for more repayments.

WHAT TO WATCH

• The Colorado House Workplace Harassment Committee is scheduled to meet at 10 a.m. Wednesday at the Capitol. The panel’s agenda is “to be determined,” according to the legislature’s website.
• The deadline for unaffiliated candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is running for president, to turn in voter signatures to appear on the November ballot is Thursday. Kennedy must gather 1,500 signatures from voters in each of the state’s eight congressional districts to make the general election ballot as an independent — which may be moot (see more below). You can check out a list of unaffiliated candidates gathering petition signatures here.

COLORADO LIBERTARIANS BACK RFK

The Colorado Libertarian Party announced Tuesday that it will support Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for president and intends to place him on the state’s November ballot instead of the party’s own nominee.

“Robert F. Kennedy Jr. shares many of the Libertarian Party’s core principles, including a commitment to civil liberties, free markets and a non-interventionist foreign policy,” the party said in a written statement. “His campaign’s focus on ending corporate welfare, reducing government spending and protecting the environment aligns with our values and resonates with Colorado voters.”

The Colorado Secretary of State’s Office said the party has until Sept. 6 to file its presidential nominating paperwork with state elections officials.

“How the party selects a nominee is going to come down to their operations and bylaws,” said Kailee Stiles, a spokeswoman for the Secretary of State’s Office. “Whoever is on the nominating paperwork that is filed by the party by Sept. 6 is up to them.”

YOU HEARD IT HERE

THE NARRATIVE

The most competitive state House and Senate districts in November

With Colorado’s primary elections now (mostly*) behind us, we’re turning our attention to the hotly contested legislative primaries on the November ballot that will determine whether Democrats keep their supermajority in the House and pick one up in the Senate.

Democrats won a lot of state House races two years ago that they were expected to lose, giving the party a 46-19 supermajority in the chamber. Now they must defend those seats in a national political environment that could favor Republicans given the questions about President Joe Biden’s mental fitness.

Here are the House races to watch and who’s running in them:

• House District 16: Democratic state Rep. Stephanie Vigil faces Republican Rebecca Keltie, a Navy veteran and self-described anti-establishment candidate, in the Colorado Springs District. Vigil won in 2022 by 710 votes, or 2 percentage points, in the district that leans 3.1 percentage points in the GOP’s favor, according to a nonpartisan analysis of past election results. 
• House District 19: Rep. Jennifer Parenti, D-Erie, will have a rematch with former state Rep. Dan Woog, a Republican. Parenti beat Woog by 1,467 votes, or 3 percentage points, in the district that leans 1.5 percentage points in the GOP’s favor.
• House District 25: Rep. Tammy Story, D-Evergreen, faces Republican George Mumma, a former police chief, in the west Jefferson County district. Story won by 729 votes, or about 1 percentage point, in the district that leans 2 percentage points in the GOP’s favor.
• House District 43: Rep. Bob Marshall, D-Highlands Ranch, is running against Republican activist Matt Burcham in the Douglas County district. Marshall won by 405 votes in 2022, or less than a percentage point, in the district that leans 7 percentage points in the GOP’s favor.
• House District 50: Rep. Mary Young, D-Greeley, will have a rematch with Republican Ryan Gonzalez, who works as a technician at J.M. Smucker. Young beat Gonzalez by 330 votes, or 2 percentage points, in 2022 in the district that leans 6 percentage points in Democrats’ favor.
• House District 61: State Rep. Eliza Hamrick, D-Centennial, faces a yet-to-be-named Republican in the district that straddles Arapahoe and Douglas counties. The GOP nominee was disqualified and a vacancy committee must select his general election replacement. Hamrick won by about 1,200 votes, or nearly 3 percentage points, in the district that leans less than a percentage point in Democrats’ favor.

Democrats hold a 23-12 majority in the Senate, one seat away from a supermajority, which would give them the power to refer constitutional changes to the ballot. Democrats will be defending two competitive seats in November and trying to pick up three others.

The districts with state Senate races this year will be up for grabs for the first time since their boundaries were redrawn in the 2021 redistricting process.

Here are the state Senate races to watch and who’s running in them:

• Senate District 5: State Rep. Marc Catlin, R-Montrose, is running against Democrat Cole Buerger, a small business owner who lives in Glenwood Springs, in this Western Slope district that leans 3 percentage points in the GOP’s favor. The district is currently represented by Sen. Perry Will, a New Castle Republican appointed to the seat by a vacancy committee who is running for Garfield County commissioner instead of seeking another term.
• Senate District 6: Sen. Cleave Simpson, R-Alamosa, is running for reelection against Democrat Vivian Smotherman, a Durango farmer and Navy veteran, in this district that spans the San Luis Valley into the Four Corners region. The district leans 1 percentage point in Democrats’ favor.
• Senate District 12: Rep. Marc Snyder, D-Manitou Springs, is running against El Paso County Commissioner Stan VanderWerf in this El Paso County-centered district, which leans 2 percentage points in Republicans’ favor. The district is currently represented by term-limited Republican Sen. Bob Gardner.
• Senate District 13: Republican Scott Bright, who owns a chain of child care centers, is running against Brighton City Councilman Matt Johnston in this district that spans Adams and Weld counties. It leans 4 percentage points in Republicans’ favor and is currently represented by Democratic Sen. Kevin Priola, who is term-limited.
• Senate District 16: Democratic Sen. Chris Kolker of Centennial is running for reelection against Centennial City Councilwoman Robyn Carnes, a Republican, in this south suburban district that is a true tossup. Neither party has an advantage in the district, according to a nonpartisan analysis of past election results. 

HOUSE DISTRICT 58 HEADS TO RECOUNT

* The outcome of the Republican primary in House District 58 in southwest Colorado is still being determined.

Less than 25 votes separated Paonia rancher J. Mark Roeber and former Montzuma County Commissioner Larry Don Suckla as of Friday morning.

It seems likely the race goes to a mandatory recount, which happens when the number of votes separating the leading two candidates is less than 0.5% of the number of votes cast for the leading candidate. Suckla’s lead is within that margin now.

The winner of the GOP primary will face Democrat Kathleen Curry, who served in the House from 2005 to 2011.

DANNY MOORE DROPS OUT

Republican Danny Moore, Republican gubernatorial candidate Heidi Ganahl’s running mate in 2022, filed paperwork Monday with state elections officials terminating his campaign to represent state House District 37 in Centennial. The move comes after he ran unopposed last week in the district’s GOP primary. A vacancy committee will be convened to select Moore’s replacement to face Democratic state Rep. Chad Clifford in November.

A representative for Moore confirmed that he is no longer in the race, but didn’t respond to Colorado Sun questions about why he dropped out.

House District 37 leans 7 percentage points in Democrats’ favor, according to past election results. Former state Rep. Ruby Dickson, a Democrat, won the district by 12 percentage points in 2022 but resigned at the end of her first year, leading to Clifford’s vacancy appointment.

THE POLITICAL TICKER

ADAM FRISCH

Adam Frisch, the Democratic nominee in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District, called on President Joe Biden to abandon his reelection bid. In an interview with The Colorado Sun, Frisch said he doesn’t have a preferred candidate to replace Biden as the Democratic presidential nominee. “I just know that there are 10 or 15 people (interested in running),” he said. “They can figure out amongst themselves who wants to run for president, who wants to be for vice president. If the vice president wants to be one of those people, good for her. If all these other people that people have been talking about (want to run), good for them.” Frisch wouldn’t commit to voting for Biden if he is the Democratic nominee, but he also said he wouldn’t vote for Donald Trump.

8TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

Republican state Rep. Gabe Evans created a leadership PAC, Thin Blue Line PAC, as he looks toward his November race in the highly competitive 8th Congressional District against U.S. Rep. Yadira Caraveo, D-Thornton. Leadership PACs may accept donations of $5,000 per year from individual donors. The money they raise can be donated to other candidates and spent on fundraising and travel. Donors who have already given to Evans’ congressional campaign may now also give to his leadership fund. Caraveo is the only member of Colorado’s congressional delegation who doesn’t have a leadership PAC.

ABORTION

The Colorado Organization for Latina Opportunity and Reproductive Rights is joining the abortion-rights nonprofit Cobalt in buying $1 million worth of TV ad time for the fall. The groups are supporting a ballot measure that would amend the state constitution to guarantee abortion access and lift a ban on public funds being used for abortion.

SENDING OUR LOVE TO JOHN FRANK

We’re sending our love and support to former Colorado Sun reporter and Unaffiliated founder John Frank and his wife after they experienced a scary medical emergency over the weekend. Read John’s writeup of what happened here.

READ MORE

• Nearly $6 million was spent on Colorado’s legislative primaries. Here’s how it affected the outcome.
• No, the EPA’s ozone-fighting mandate did not sharply raise Colorado gas prices 
• Good food and stable housing have huge effects on health. So Colorado Medicaid wants to cover those, too.
• Where does the flurry of pro-industry Supreme Court decisions leave Colorado’s environmental efforts? 
• El Paso County GOP censures Vickie Tonkins, calls for Dave Williams’ removal in disputed meeting
  — Colorado Politics 🔑
• Democrat Yadira Caraveo says it’s “up to the voters” whether Biden is capable of serving four more years
  — Colorado Politics 🔑
• Colorado Democrats vote against Gaza ceasefire resolution
  — Colorado Public Radio
• New Colorado law adds protection for trans community
  — 9News

🔑 = source has article meter or paywall

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THIS WEEK’S PODCAST: Unpacking Colorado’s primary election results

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THE BIGGER PICTURE

• Rural Republicans pushing back against school voucher expansions
  — ProPublica
• RFK Jr.’s family doesn’t want him to run. Even they may not know his darkest secrets.
  — Vanity Fair 🔑
• The road to a crisis: How Democrats let Biden glide to renomination
  — The New York Times 🔑
• Texas’ social media law remains blocked after U.S. Supreme Court sends it back to lower court
  — The Texas Tribune
• When “universal” pre-K really isn’t
  — Stateline

🔑 = source has article meter or paywall

The Colorado Sun is part of The Trust Project. Read our policies.

Corrections & Clarifications

Notice something wrong? The Colorado Sun has an ethical responsibility to fix all factual errors. Request a correction by emailing corrections@coloradosun.com.

The results of Colorado’s Democratic legislative primaries are confounding political observers. Progressive candidates lost in the majority of contested House and Senate races, but they also won in a few key contests.

Here are our takeaways from what happened:

• It would be easy to point to money as the deciding factor in all of the contests, but the data doesn’t totally bear out that narrative. Take the Senate District 28 Democratic primary in Aurora, where more than $1 million was spent by political groups, about 70% of it to defeat Rep. Mike Weissman, the more progressive choice. The total state-level super PAC spending in the district was the highest of any legislative primary this year, but Weissman still beat his opponent, attorney Idris Keith. In the Democratic primary in House District 52, which ranked No. 4 in terms of political group spending, Fort Collins tax attorney Yara Zokaie beat former lobbyist Ethnie Treick. There was about $270,000 spent to defeat Zokaie, the more progressive choice, while about $240,000 was spent to help her.
• It would also be wrong to write off the effect of the outside spending entirely. In the races where one candidate benefited from political group spending and the other received zero help, the latter always lost. That includes Rep. Elisabeth Epps in House District 6, Westminster City Councilman Obi Ezeadi in Senate District 19 and Kyra DeGruy Kennedy in House District 30.
• Having friends at the Capitol helped. Many of the candidates who won had more endorsements from incumbent lawmakers and elected leaders than their opponents. Denver attorney Sean Camacho, for instance, was endorsed by a who’s who of Democrats, while his opponent, Epps, didn’t list any such support on her website. Reps. Judy Amabile and Lindsey Daugherty beat their rivals in Senate District 18 and 19, respectively, after receiving backing from a broad spectrum of Democrats. Rep. Tim Hernández in House District 4 was one of the exceptions to that trend, but there was a ton of outside spending in his race and Hernández had a good deal of negative press coverage working against him.
• Along the “having friends matters” line, remember that a lot of progressive incumbents didn’t face primary challenges this cycle. People like Democratic Reps. Lorena Garcia and Javier Mabrey and Manny Rutinel. They are among the most liberal Democrats in the legislature, but they have reputations for working well with their colleagues. 

The bottom line: Overall, Tuesday was a bad day for progressives. But it’s difficult to write a decisive narrative about what happened in all of the Democratic legislative primaries.

The districts and candidates aren’t monoliths. The money mattered, yes, but so did who was running.

STORY: Elisabeth Epps, Tim Hernández unseated as Democratic legislative primary results are a mixed bag for progressives

VACANCY APPOINTEES WERE 0-2

There’s been a lot of focus on legislative vacancy committees in recent years and whether they are truly reflective of their districts. The vacancy-appointed Democratic representatives who faced primary challenges — Hernández and Marvin — both lost Tuesday to the candidates they beat in their vacancy elections.

Hernández was elected to his seat last year by a 66-member Democratic vacancy committee. Marvin was elected to her seat this year by a 17-member Democratic vacancy committee.

Hernández was losing to former federal immigration judge Cecelia Espenoza as of Thursday morning with 4,908 votes to Espenoza’s 5,572 votes, a 6 percentage point margin.

Marvin was losing in House District 31 to former Thornton City Councilwoman Jacque Phillips with 2,064 votes to Phillips’ 2,487, a 10 percentage point margin.

HOT TAKES

Here are some hot takes on the legislative primary results that we thought were interesting:

• “The dark money pouring in from the Colorado centimillionaires into our primary elections is disgusting,” said state Sen. Julie Gonzales, a Denver Democrat. “If I were a candidate running this year, I would condemn it. It’s telling to see who has publicly condemned it and who has looked the other way with a tight-lipped smile.”
• “If you take politics as a game, you have to play underneath the rules,” Deep Badhesha, a lobbyist and progressive activist who is close with Epps and other progressives who ran this year, told The Denver Post. “You can’t appear to be disagreeable. You have to appear to voters as someone who’s getting things done.”
• “As folks debate the election results, one thing that stands out is the lack of introspection on display,” said state Rep. Steven Woodrow, a Denver Democrat who backed Camacho this year after supporting Epps in 2022.
• “It’s a certain brand of progressive that lost. Learn,” said outgoing state Rep. David Ortiz, a Littleton Democrat who backed Hernández and opposed Epps.
• “There’s a difference between being progressive and being extreme,” said Sarah Andrews, a Democratic campaign operative and the wife of state Sen. Dylan Roberts, D-Frisco. “You can be a pragmatic progressive — and by a majority those are the people that won last night in Colorado.” She said the results are also a reminder that Twitter isn’t real life.
• “Despite low voter turnout, first signs that the pendulum is beginning to settle in the moderate middle?” said Sandra Hagen Solin, a lobbyist.
• Denver Post political reporter Seth Klamann pointed out that Judy Amabile, Mike Weissman and Lindsey Daugherty are replacing much more moderate Democrats in the Senate, as will Rep. Cathy Kipp of Fort Collins. They are replacing, respectively, term-limited Democratic Sens. Steve Fenberg, Rhonda Fields, Rachel Zenzinger and Joann Ginal.

DO THE MATH

Political groups spent $1,053,401 to sway voters in the race, while the candidates’ campaigns spent another $210,534, as of the latest campaign finance figures available Thursday.

Keith benefited the most from interest group spending that came from outside the campaigns — $717,012, or $146 for each of the 4,917 votes cast in his favor.

Groups spent $336,379 to help Weissman win, or $85 per vote. Weissman’s campaign, however, outspent Keith’s about 2-to-1.

Weissman won with 53% of the vote, according to unofficial results through Thursday.

YOU HEARD IT HERE

Seitchik is no fan of Williams. He was the Western regional political director for Donald Trump’s 2020 presidential campaign when he got to know Williams — and fired him from his volunteer role for allegedly abusing his title. (Seitchek called Williams an “asshole’s asshole” in this newsletter two years ago.) But his point is salient.

The 5th District is a Republican stronghold — Trump country, if you will — so the fact that a Trump-endorsed candidate lost there is a big deal.

“It speaks to Dave Williams’ failure as a candidate that you lose a GOP primary with the most potent political endorsement in political history,” Seitchik said. “Voters identified Dave Williams’ raging moral turpitude.”

STORY: Jeff Crank beats Dave Williams in Republican primary in Colorado’s 5th Congressional District

STORY: 14 of the 18 Republican candidates endorsed by the Colorado GOP lost their primary races

FORBES: Rough night For Trump-endorsed candidates: 3 Trump-backed GOP picks lost primaries

JEFF CRANK’S “UNITY RALLY”

COLORADO SPRINGS — Less than 48 hours after beating Dave Williams in the 5th District Republican primary, Jeff Crank stood under cloudy skies Thursday evening alongside about 60 supporters to try to unite the fractured Colorado GOP.

“People are tired of us fighting. We’re like children bickering. We can’t do that anymore,” Crank told the crowd at Gateway Park in Colorado Springs. “We have to be the adults in the room, we’re going to be the adults in the room moving forward. From here on out.”

Notably missing: Williams and his top supporters.

Williams did not call to concede or congratulate Crank, Ashlee Springer, an organizer of the rally told The Colorado Sun.

The rally was attended by a group of Republican leaders who were already supporting Crank or part of his less extreme branch of the GOP, including former Secretary of State Wayne Williams, state Sen. Larry Liston, state Rep. Mary Bradfield, Sheriff Joe Roybal and 4th Judicial District Attorney Michael Allen.

“I think it should be clear to everybody that the Democrats sense that we’re vulnerable. They see fighting in our party, they see declining voter registration, they see changing community dynamics,” Allen said. “And so with all of those things as our burden, our responsibility is we’ve got to come together, we’ve got to unite.”

Other Republicans who attended the rally: State Reps. Don Wilson and Ken DeGraaf, House District 16 candidate Rebecca Keltie, House District 20 candidate Jarvis Caldwell Colorado Springs city councilman Dave Donelson, and El Paso County commissioners Stan VanderWerf, Carrie Geitner and Holly Williams.

Our take: It’s not clear the rally did much uniting of anyone other than Republicans who were already united. DeGraaf may be the one exception.

— Colorado Sun staff writer Olivia Prentzel covered the rally in Colorado Springs.

THE POLITICAL TICKER

COLORADO SENATE

State Sen. Kevin Van Winkle’s victory in the Republican primary for a seat on the Douglas County Commission all but guarantees that he will win in November, too, given the county’s GOP lean. That means a vacancy committee will be convened to determine who serves out the rest of his Senate term, which ends in early 2027. The only sitting Republican representative who lives in his Senate District 30 is Brandi Bradley. Former state Rep. Kim Ransom, a Littleton Republican, also lives in the district. The district includes Highlands Ranch, Roxborough Park, Lone Tree and Castle Pines.

8TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

The National Republican Congressional Committee is reserving $2.3 million in TV ad time for the fall in Colorado’s toss-up 8th Congressional District, where U.S. Rep. Yadira Caraveo, D-Thornton, faces state Rep. Gabe Evans, R-Fort Lupton. The money is part of $45.7 million in spending on national advertising time by the NRCC. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has already reserved $1.6 million in TV ad time for the district. The Congressional Leadership Fund, a GOP super PAC, has reserved $5.1 million in TV time aimed at the district and House Majority PAC, a Democratic group, has reserved $3.9 million in 8th District TV time.

5TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

Science educator River Gassen won the two-way Democratic primary in Colorado’s 5th Congressional District, defeating Army veteran Joe Reagan by just under 500 votes. She’ll face Republican Jeff Crank, a conservative commentator and activist, in November, as well as American Constitution Party candidate Christopher Mitchell. Unaffiliated candidates Joseph Gaye and Katrina Nguyen have until July 11 to submit signatures to make the general election ballot in the Republican stronghold district in El Paso County.

COLORADO LIBERTARIAN PARTY

The Libertarian Party presidential ticket won’t appear on Colorado’s general election ballot, the Colorado Libertarian Party said Thursday. In an email announcing the decision, the state party criticized presidential candidate Chase Oliver for, among other things, wearing a mask at a 2020 Thanksgiving event and saying gender-affirming care is a decision left to parents and their children. The state party’s board of directors recently voted against submitting the paperwork to get Oliver and his vice presidential running mate, Mike ter Maat, on the ballot.

READ MORE

• Why Lauren Boebert likely won’t lose to a Democrat in November
• Most Colorado oil and gas wells do not generate enough cash to ensure they will be cleaned up, study says
• Kansas forced Colorado to stop irrigating 25,000 acres of farmland. Was it too soon to put them in the same room?
• Randy Corporon wired $375K divorce settlement to hacker, lawsuit says
  — BusinessDen 🔑
• American Muckrakers PAC announces settlement with Lauren Boebert in defamation lawsuit
  — Colorado Newsline

🔑 = source has article meter or paywall

ELECTION 2024

Don’t miss our 2024 primary results coverage

Below you’ll find links to all of our 2024 primary results stories that aren’t elsewhere in this newsletter:

• Lauren Boebert wins six-way primary in Colorado’s 4th Congressional District, making her reelection highly probable
• Republican Greg Lopez wins special election to serve out Ken Buck’s term in Congress
• Jeff Hurd wins Republican primary in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District, will take on Democrat Adam Frisch in November
• Denver Democrats pick John Walsh for district attorney. George Brauchler wins GOP election in new district.
• Gabe Evans wins Republican primary in Colorado’s 8th Congressional District, will take on Democrat Yadira Caraveo
• Colorado Board of Education could shift against charter schools following Democratic primary

THE BIGGER PICTURE

• Why Hakeem Jeffries isn’t that upset about Jamaal Bowman’s loss
  — Politico
• Democrats keep feuding in Philly, imperiling Biden’s reelection
  — Bloomberg 🔑
• Rep. John Curtis calls U.S. Senate primary win a testament to Utah values over partisan labels
  — The Deseret News
• The newest deciders: Almost 2 million women have become U.S. citizens since the 2020 election
  — The 19th

🔑 = source has article meter or paywall

The Colorado Sun is part of The Trust Project. Read our policies.

Corrections & Clarifications

Notice something wrong? The Colorado Sun has an ethical responsibility to fix all factual errors. Request a correction by emailing corrections@coloradosun.com.

It’s primary Election Day in Colorado in what we’re calling the year of the primary. There are important races being decided up and down the ballot, and Colorado’s political direction hangs in the balance.

Here’s some analysis from Jesse on what to watch for as results are posted tonight:

• Polling shows U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert is poised to cruise to victory in the six-way Republican primary in Colorado’s 4th Congressional District, with her five opponents splitting the anti-Boebert vote. Assuming she does win, her margin of victory will be the real story. If she only picks up 30%-39% of the vote, she may be vulnerable to a future GOP primary challenge. If she gets more than 40% of the vote, it will be a decisive win. If she breaks 50% in the crowded race — no polling we’ve seen or heard about indicates she will — she will effectively have a mandate. 
• The 4th District special election, also being decided Tuesday, will serve as a barometer for voters’ future willingness to back a Democrat in the Republican stronghold in November. Former Parker Mayor Greg Lopez is expected to beat Democrat Trisha Calvarese, a former speechwriter and congressional aide. National groups ignored the race, a sign that its outcome was never in doubt. But if Calvarese gets within 10 points of Lopez, that could be a signal that the district, which includes Douglas County and Loveland and sweeps across the Eastern Plains, is more vulnerable in the fall than political observers may think.
• The two-way Republican primary in Colorado’s Republican-leaning 5th Congressional District in El Paso County has become a battle for the soul of the GOP. Some $2.5 million has been spent to try to defeat Colorado GOP Chairman Dave Williams in his race against conservative commentator activist Jeff Crank, but Williams’ name ID and party position can’t be written off. This will be a top contest to watch tonight as it could chart the direction of the Republican Party in Colorado.
• The six-way Republican primary in the 3rd Congressional District could decide if the GOP-leaning district that spans the Western Slope into Pueblo and southeastern Colorado will be in play for Democrats in November. National Democrats and Republicans agree that if former state Rep. Ron Hanks wins the primary, Democrat Adam Frisch may have a shot in November. If Grand Junction attorney Jeff Hurd is the GOP nominee, Frisch’s chances get much slimmer. Frisch and a Democratic super PAC have spent money on ads to tear down Hurd and help Hanks, while the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC tied to House Speaker Mike Johnson, has been running ads attacking Hanks. With a large field of mostly unknown candidates, a wild-card winner could emerge, too. 
• Well over $3.5 million has been spent to influence voters in a group of Democratic legislative primaries that will determine how far left the legislature is when it returns in January. From the House District 6 Democratic primary in Denver between Rep. Elisabeth Epps and attorney Sean Camacho, to the Senate District 28 primary in Aurora between Rep. Mike Weissman and attorney Idris Keith, a lot is at stake.

WHAT ELSE TO WATCH

Here are a few other things to keep an eye on tonight:

• While the Democratic legislative primaries being decided today are more important in terms of the direction of policy at the Capitol, there are a few Republican state Senate and House primaries that will be worth watching, too. In particular, the Senate District 2 primary in Douglas County between state Rep. Lisa Frizell and Tim Arvidson, who works in the technology industry, as well as the House District 65 primary in northern Colorado between Weld County Councilman Trent Leisy and former teacher and school administrator Lori Garcia Sander. Those races will affect the tenor under the Gold Dome for years to come. 
• The Democratic primary between former U.S. Attorney John Walsh and Colorado Office of Behavioral Health Director Leora Joseph in the Denver district attorney’s race will set the law enforcement direction for the city for the next four years. Meanwhile, don’t sleep on the 23rd Judicial District attorney Republican primary between former 18th Judicial District Attorney George Brauchler and criminal defense attorney Dagny Van Der Jagt.
• About $1 million has been spent in the Democratic primary for the 2nd Congressional District seat on the Colorado Board of Education — and with good reason. The contest may determine the future of charter schools in the state. The contest is between Marisol Rodriguez, an education consultant who focuses on charter schools, and former Boulder Valley School Board President Kathy Gebhardt. All but a fraction of the money has been spent to benefit Rodriguez, who charter school advocates believe will maintain the 5-4 majority on the state board that is willing to overturn local school districts when they deny charter school applications. Gebhardt told The Colorado Sun that charter school decisions should be made on the local level.

AXIOS DENVER: Early vote trends lower ahead of today’s election

WHAT TO WATCH THIS WEEK

• It’s primary Election Day in Colorado. You have until 7 p.m. to cast your vote, after which county clerks will begin posting results. It’s too late to mail your ballot back in. You must drop it off at a drop box in your county or cast your vote in person.
• The legislature’s Executive Committee of the Legislative Council meets at 9 a.m. Thursday at the Capitol to consider a range of topics.
• The Senate Committee on Ethics is scheduled to meet at 9 a.m. Monday as it continues its review of a complaint filed against Democratic state Sen. Faith Winter of Broomfield.

THE BIG STORY

How Dave Williams benefits from the Colorado GOP sending out mailers on his behalf

The Colorado GOP is promising that it won’t be “out any money” on the nearly $20,000 it spent benefiting Chairman Dave Williams’ congressional campaign — apparently on mailers — saying that future campaign finance reports will reflect that.

But even if Williams somehow reimburses the party — and there are questions about whether he can legally do that —he has still received a benefit not provided to all other Republican candidates.

That’s because the Colorado GOP, as a nonprofit, gets a discounted postage rate on the mail it sends out.

“It is significant,” Kristi Burton Brown, Williams’ predecessor at the state party, said of the discount.

The exact savings depends on the size and weight of the mail, as well as the number of pieces being sent out. But it can quickly add up to thousands of dollars.

Burton Brown said when she was party chair, there were candidates who asked the Colorado GOP to send out their mail pieces to cash in on the discount. Her practice was to say “no,” because it was her administration’s understanding that any mailers sent out by the party on behalf of a candidate had to — legally speaking — be 100% paid for by the party.

A few times in 2022, the party sent out mailers benefiting candidates for state Senate, but those were paid for in full by the party with no reimbursements from the candidates themselves. Additionally, the party would count the spending against donation limits to the candidates.

The Colorado GOP in recent weeks has sent out at least three mailers to benefit Williams and attack his primary opponent, conservative commentator and activist Jeff Crank, in the 5th Congressional District. All three were sent with the nonprofit mail rate.

The Colorado GOP categorized the roughly $20,000 it spent in May to benefit Williams’ congressional campaign as an “itemized coordinated expenditure.” The Federal Election Commission’s website says that kind of spending is allowed — for party nominees, or people who win their party’s primary. Pre-nomination expenditures are allowed, but they must be made in connection with the general election.

Coordinated party spending is capped at $61,800 per U.S. House candidate in Colorado.

We checked with Crank’s campaign and it said the Colorado GOP did not offer it access to the state party’s discounted mail rate. The benefit also wasn’t offered to Republican Jeff Hurd’s campaign in the 3rd Congressional District.

SETTING THE RECORD STRAIGHT

Williams’ wife, Emily, posted on Facebook that The Colorado Sun was told that the chairman has sent funds to the Colorado GOP but that “because of the cutoff dates for reporting to the FEC, it won’t show the money he put into the party until the next report.”

That’s false.

Colorado GOP Treasurer Tom Bjorklund would only tell The Sun that “the party isn’t out any money and our balance sheets and subsequent disclosure filings will show a net positive for Colorado Republicans.” He didn’t mention any reimbursement plan past or present — we specifically asked if there was one — and he refused to explain how his financial explanation could be true.

“Likely you wouldn’t understand anyway,” Bjorklund wrote.

You can see our exchange with Bjorklund over text message — with his number redacted — here.

STORY: Colorado GOP spent $20,000 supporting Chairman Dave Williams’ congressional campaign in May, report shows

ELECTION 2024

Adam Frisch’s new TV ad eliminates any doubt that he wants to face Ron Hanks in November

Democrat Adam Frisch is making the intentions of his spending in the six-way Republican primary in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District crystal clear with a new TV ad in the race.

The former Aspen city councilman is now running a 15-second ad promoting former state Rep. Ron Hanks in the race by comparing him to U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert, the district’s current congresswoman, and highlighting his support of a national law banning abortion.

Last week, Frisch waded into the GOP primary with an ad attacking Grand Junction attorney Jeff Hurd for “ducking Republican debates” and for refusing to say who he voted for in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, as well as for being the beneficiary of corporate super PAC money.

The Hanks ad eliminates any doubt that Frisch would rather face Hanks in November — and for good reason.

Hanks is an election denier who attended Donald Trump’s rally on Jan. 6, 2021, in Washington, D.C., that preceded the deadly riot at the U.S. Capitol. He’s likely the candidate in the 3rd District Republican primary most comparable to Boebert, whom Frisch lost to in 2022 by just 546 votes.

Rocky Mountain Values PAC, a Democratic group, had spent about $500,000 through Monday on ads promoting Hanks and tearing down Hurd for the same reason Frisch is doing so.

Meanwhile, the Congressional Leadership Fund, a Republican super PAC tied to House Speaker Mike Johnson, has added phone calls and texts to its attacks against Hanks in the primary race. National Republicans also see Hanks as vulnerable in November and would prefer Hurd as the party’s nominee.

THE POLITICAL TICKER

JARED POLIS

Gov. Jared Polis told conservative political consultant and commentator Tim Miller on Friday that his dream blunt rotation (here’s an explanation of what a blunt rotation is) would include Dolly Parton and Argentina’s President Javier Milei. The governor reiterated, however, that he’s never smoked cannabis. Miller interviewed Polis live before an audience on the Auraria Campus for The Bulwark Podcast. Listen here.

ELECTION 2024

The Republican State Leadership Committee announced it will spend $38 million on state legislative contests this year, while Planned Parenthood Votes said it will spend $40 million on the November election. What both have in common: Colorado isn’t on the list of states where they plan to spend. In 2022, RSLC donated nearly $1.3 million to state-level super PACs in Colorado. The national Planned Parenthood Action Fund is focused on congressional contests and has endorsed four Democrats in Colorado this year. But it’s focusing its monetary resources elsewhere thus far. Either group could decide to get involved in the state at a later date, but their decision to wait to wade into Colorado is yet another indication that it’s not in play in 2024.

READ MORE

• Group tied to Kent Thiry drops $1.1 million into Colorado legislative primaries in final days before election
• PERA’s investments bounce back in 2023, but the Colorado pension plan’s finances falter
• Supporters raise enough money to conduct first year of Colorado racial equity study
• Are new tariffs on solar good or bad for Colorado? 
• Denver city workers can’t collectively bargain. That could change.
• Colorado’s unemployment rate inches upward to 3.8%
• U.S. Supreme Court will consider reinstating approval for rail line carrying crude oil through Colorado
  — The Associated Press
• Federal judge blocks Colorado’s new limits on certain short-term loans
  — The Denver Post 🔑
• Colorado renters can save money by getting their own background checks, but nobody seems to know how to do it
  — Colorado Public Radio
• New laws that go into effect in Colorado on July 1
  — 9News
• Jesse was on Colorado Inside Out on Friday
  — PBS12
• Colorado Supreme Court bars proposed ban on gender-affirming care for minors, clears way for primary election revamp
  — Colorado Politics 🔑

🔑 = source has article meter or paywall

CHART OF THE WEEK

U.S. Rep. Yadira Caraveo, D-Thornton, raised the second most among congressional candidates between June 6 and Saturday from donors giving $1,000 or more, at $149,316, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission.

This close to the election, candidates are required by the FEC to report all contributions of $1,000 or more within 48 hours.

Caraveo, a Thornton Democrat, will face either Republican state Rep. Gabe Evans ($67,171 raised from big donors during that stretch) or former state Rep. Janak Joshi ($10,900 raised from big donors during that stretch) in the tossup 8th Congressional District in November.

THE BIGGER PICTURE

• John Fetterman’s war
  — The New Yorker 🔑
• Clippers cut a wide swath making political campaign videos go viral
  — The New York Times 🔑
•  Matt Gaetz hits the road to reshape the Republican Party
  — The Wall Street Journal 🔑
• Two years after Roe’s overturn, there are more abortions in America — but they’re harder to get
  — The 19th

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The Colorado Sun is part of The Trust Project. Read our policies.

Corrections & Clarifications

Notice something wrong? The Colorado Sun has an ethical responsibility to fix all factual errors. Request a correction by emailing corrections@coloradosun.com.

The Colorado Senate Ethics Committee voted unanimously Thursday to advance its investigation into a complaint filed by the Northglenn City Council against state Sen. Faith Winter for appearing to be intoxicated at a community meeting in April.

The committee discussed the evidence against Winter during a three-hour hearing at the Capitol. Some highlights:

• Winter admitted to drinking alcohol before the Northglenn event, but not in excess. “I expected the meeting to be emotionally charged, so I had a drink before walking in,” she said in a written statement to the ethics committee, asking for the complaint to be dismissed. (The gathering was about a state plan to open a controversial mental health transitional living facility.) However, Winter appeared to be so intoxicated — her speech was slurring and halting, according to a video recording — that police officers at the event encouraged her to get a ride home and the next day she entered treatment for substance abuse.
• Winter, the assistant Senate majority leader, cited the culture of alcohol use at the Capitol in her response, saying “it is used in many ways, including promoting camaraderie and as a coping mechanism.”
• “Though I regret having a drink before entering the April 3 community meeting, and I would reverse that decision if I could, I can confidently say that I have fulfilled my responsibilities and duties as a senator,” she wrote. “… Northglenn alleges that I consumed alcohol while acting as a senator, but consuming alcohol while acting as a senator is commonplace in this state, so much so that it is widely publicized.”
• Winter submitted a letter from a doctor saying she is being treated for substance abuse and taking medication to curb alcohol cravings “and has demonstrated a strong commitment towards achieving her treatment goal.”

Members of the bipartisan committee wrestled this week with how to evaluate the complaint.

“One of the big questions we have is: Was Senator Winter acting in her official capacity as a senator at the meeting on April 3?” said state Sen. Dylan Roberts, a Frisco Democrat who sits on the panel.

SOME SKEPTICISM TOWARD WINTER

Members of the committee appeared to be skeptical of parts of Winter’s letter.

• Several members rejected Winter’s link between her actions at the Northglenn meeting and the Capitol drinking culture. “I am incredibly troubled about that,” Sen. Bob Gardner, R-Colorado Springs, said. “We make this culture, we are the culture.” Roberts said he strongly disagrees that the Capitol culture is to blame for Winter’s behavior.
• Winter wrote in her letter that she was never invited to speak at the April 3 meeting in Northglenn. Committee members raised questions about that claim. “I think there was an expectation, at least by those who organized the meeting, that she was there not only to be in attendance, but to be on the panel speaking,” Roberts said.
• Winter also wrote that she hadn’t received any letters from constituents expressing that they have lost confidence in her. Denver Democratic Sen. Julie Gonzales, however, said there were plenty of people raising concern. “There are a number of emails from constituents to the Northglenn City Council,” she said. “Not one, but two public bodies (the Northglenn and Westminster city councils) discussed that behavior.”

The committee unanimously voted at the end of their meeting Thursday that probable cause exists that Winter committed misconduct in her official capacity. They also voted to give Gonzales, the panel’s chair, subpoena power to gather additional materials and testimony should they be needed.

Winter now has seven days to request a hearing at which she would be able to testify, present evidence and cross-examine witnesses while being represented by a lawyer. The hearing would have to happen 14 days after it is requested.

After the hearing, or if Winter doesn’t request one, the panel will vote to either dismiss the complaint or find that action should be taken against Winter, including in the form of a reprimand, censure or expulsion.

MATT GRAY COMES TO WINTER’S DEFENSE

Former state Rep. Matt Gray, who abandoned his 2022 reelection bid after being arrested on suspicion of drunken driving while attempting to pick his kids up from school, posted on social media that Winter was being forced to “experience a protracted hearing about one of the worst days of her life after apologizing many times.”

“Congrats to Northglenn and Colorado taxpayers,” he said, also referring to Winter in the post as his fiancee.

DO THE MATH

All but about $84,000 of that cash has gone to support Marisol Rodriguez, an education consultant who focuses on charter schools, in her race against former Boulder Valley School Board President Kathy Gebhardt. The outcome of the race could swing the 5-4 majority on the state board that is willing to overturn local school districts when they deny charter school applications.

The cash supporting Rodriguez has come from the super PAC Progressives Supporting Teachers and Students, as we reported Wednesday. Since that story, the super PAC has spent $53,000 on a mailer opposing Gebhardt, $126,000 on internet ads supporting Rodriguez and opposing Gebhardt and $51,000 on a mailer supporting Rodriguez.

Progressives Supporting Teachers and Students is funded by the Colorado League of Charter Schools independent spending committee, which gets its money from an affiliated nonprofit that doesn’t disclose its donors.

Colorado Labor Action, funded primarily by the Colorado Education Association, has spent about $42,000 in support of Gebhardt. Colorado Education Association Victory Fund spent $41,000 on a mailer supporting her this week.

MORE MONEY IN THE 3RD CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

In the six-way Republican primary in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District, the Congressional Leadership Fund, a Republican super PAC tied to House Speaker Mike Johnson, increased its spending in opposition to former state Rep. Ron Hanks.

The group has now dropped about $434,000 on a TV ad attacking Hanks and labeling him a “liberal” — which is laughable if you know anything about Hanks.

That’s more than the nearly $415,000 spent by the Democratic super PAC Rocky Mountain Values boosting Hanks.

Democrats see Hanks as the easiest candidate for Democrat Adam Frisch to beat in November, and national Republicans seem to agree. (Frisch this week started running ads attacking Hanks’ leading primary opponent, Grand Junction attorney Jeff Hurd.)

Hanks had a few words about the advertising when reached by The Unaffiliated.

“Rocky Mountain Values has more truth and integrity in advertisements than Speaker Mike Johnson has in his,” Hanks said. “We are dead set on winning this (primary) and we feel we’re going to win this. And I think Adam Frisch is eminently defeatable in the general election.”

Colorado GOP Vice Chairwoman Hope Scheppelman shared Frisch’s ad attacking Hurd in a Republican Facebook group in an effort to support Hanks. (The state party has endorsed Hanks, an ally of Colorado GOP Chairman Dave Williams.)

Just one thing: The version of the ad shared by Scheppelman cuts off the disclaimer that it came from Frisch’s campaign.

THE NARRATIVE

FEC report clearly shows Colorado GOP spending to directly benefit Chairman Dave Williams

The Colorado GOP spent nearly $20,000 in late May to help party Chairman Dave Williams in his 5th District Congressional campaign.

That represented the largest single expense of the nearly $90,000 the party spent in May, according to a Federal Election Commission filing late Thursday. The party raised about $56,000 last month and began June with about $550,000 in the bank.

Williams has faced intense criticism for using party resources to benefit his congressional bid as he faces conservative commentator and activist Jeff Crank in the Republican primary in the 5th District. Last week, in an interview with 9News, Williams denied using party money on his campaign.

“There’s been no direct spending from the party for myself,” he said.

But the FEC report filed by the Colorado GOP late Thursday clearly refutes that claim. It discloses $19,445.29 spent by the party in support of Williams’ congressional campaign. No other candidates directly benefited from party spending last month.

The Colorado GOP sent a mailer in late May promoting Williams and his endorsement from Donald Trump. The FEC report says the $19,445.29 was spent by the party to support Williams’ congressional campaign May 28, the same day The Sun received a copy of the mailer. (The report doesn’t say what the money was spent on, just that it was spent to support Williams.)

The party sent two more mailers in early June promoting Williams and attacking Crank. The Colorado GOP’s June spending won’t be revealed until late July.

The Colorado GOP’s largest contributions in May were nearly $17,000 from the Douglas County Republican Central Committee and nearly $5,000 from the Weld County Republican Central Committee.

The party’s donations included $2,350 from four candidates endorsed by the party, including $1,000 from former state Rep. Ron Hanks, who is running in the six-way GOP primary in the 3rd Congressional District.

The GOP paid party Treasurer Tom Bjorklund’s consulting firm $11,750 in May, and Williams’ firm $8,000. It also sent a $10,000 donation to the Claremont Institute in California, which employs attorney and election denier John Eastman, who is representing the party in a federal lawsuit seeking to block unaffiliated voters from casting ballots in Republican primaries.

A California judge recommended Eastman be disbarred for his actions of trying to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election to keep Trump in office.

Colorado Democrats reported raising $113,000 in May while spending $102,000. The party ended the month with $384,000 in cash. The Democratic National Committee was responsible for much of that fundraising, as well as Democratic candidates paying the party for voter lists.

COLORADO GOP SPENDING IN THE 8TH DISTRICT

The Colorado GOP paid for a mailer sent this week to voters in the 8th Congressional District promoting former state Rep. Janak Joshi and attacking state Rep. Gabe Evans in the Republican primary there.

Joshi was endorsed by the Colorado GOP.

The mailer paints Evans as disloyal to Trump and weak on tax policy and abortion.

Evans is the preferred choice of national Republicans to take on Democratic U.S. Rep. Yadira Caraveo in November in the highly competitive district.

THE POLITICAL TICKER

HOUSE DISTRICT 6

U.S. Rep. Joe Neguse, D-Lafayette, this week endorsed Denver attorney Sean Camacho in his Democratic primary bid against state Rep. Elisabeth Epps. “Sean has proven that he has what it takes to represent the people of Colorado’s House District 6,” Neguse said in a written statement. “I’m proud to support Sean because I know he will work hard to create and protect the opportunities that all Coloradans deserve.”

DCCC

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has reserved $1.55 million in TV ad time in the Denver media market leading up to the November election, part of a $28 million initiative across eight states. The time will likely be used for ads to help Democratic U.S. Rep. Yadira Caraveo of Thornton win her reelection bid in the highly competitive 8th Congressional District.

THE LOBBY

Randy Drennen, who previously served as the vice president of the Colorado Contractors Association, has been named the executive director of the Rocky Mountain Mechanical Contractors Association. Bradford begins work in July and takes over from Dave Davia, who is now president and CEO of Colorado Concern. “I’m looking forward to partnering with the RMMCA Board and labor partners in promoting workforce and business development opportunities and advocating for business-friendly policies that will benefit the skilled trades industry in Colorado,” Drennen said in a written statement.

TRENT LEISY

Republican Trent Leisy filed an amended quarterly Federal Election Commission report for April on Tuesday after The Unaffiliated earlier in the day reported that his previous filing declared no donations or expenditures and made no mention of an outstanding $100,000 loan Leisy said he made to his campaign in October. The updated report Leisy submitted Tuesday mentioned the loan, along with $1,700 in contributions and spending of less than $100. Leisy also submitted a note to the FEC trying to explain discrepancies in his previous filings. Leisy exited the 4th District race in March, but his FEC account remains active —and purportedly he has $101,000 in leftover campaign funds sitting around. He is now running to represent state House District 65 in northern Colorado.

READ MORE

• Elisabeth Epps, Tim Hernández — two of the Colorado legislature’s most liberal lawmakers — battle to keep their jobs
• New Colorado law protects tribal lands in response to southwest Colorado land dispute
• An experiment doled out money to homeless people in Denver, no strings attached. Here’s what happened.  
• Only one Colorado town lets nonresidents vote. Now it’s considering adding LLCs to voter rolls.
• Elisabeth Epps’ nonprofit raises questions about transparency, conflicts
  — Axios Denver
• Colorado GOP chair does not believe his anti-gay rhetoric is “hate”
  — 9News
• Black lawmakers rejoice as Juneteenth donations give final boost to launch Colorado racial equity study
  — Colorado Public Radio
• Colorado is about to elect a six-month member of Congress. What can they actually get done?
  — Colorado Public Radio
• Ahead of contentious primary, Republican voters in El Paso County consider who they want to send to Congress
  — Colorado Public Radio
• Only 1 Colorado rancher has been paid following a wolf depredation this year. Why?
  — The Vail Daily
• Denver finally puts a price tag on Mayor Mike Johnston’s homelessness initiative
  — The Denver Post 🔑

🔑 = source has article meter or paywall

REVENUE FORECASTS

Early TABOR forecasts give Democrats upper hand in tax deal

When Colorado lawmakers first announced the bipartisan tax deal that brought back automatic income tax cuts under the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights, we noted in The Unaffiliated that those tax cuts may not happen as often as conservatives would like.

Remember: That deal, struck between Democratic Gov. Jared Polis and top lawmakers in both parties, was negotiated as a trade-off for both sides.

Progressives in the legislature got tax credits for low-income parents and workers. Polis and conservatives got an across-the-board temporary income tax cut in years when the TABOR surplus exceeds $300 million. And all of the above would grow or shrink depending on the size of the surplus.

Two months later, a scenario where progressives get their cake (in the form of tax credits) and eat it, too, (by avoiding an income tax cut) doesn’t just seem plausible — legislative forecasters say it could happen as soon as next budget year.

On Thursday, economists with Colorado Legislative Council Staff and the governor’s Office of State Planning and Budgeting presented their first quarterly revenue forecasts since the TABOR overhaul was passed into law.

Notably, both forecasts anticipate the tax credits being triggered to their maximum amount in the 2025 and 2026 tax years. But neither one expects the maximum tax cut to kick in amid slowing economic growth.

“Even though we’re expecting pretty weak revenue performance in this year and next fiscal year, we still think that the revenue forecast … is going to be sufficient to fully turn on those credits,” Greg Sobetski, the chief legislative economist told the Joint Budget Committee.

If you’re a progressive, the TABOR forecast from legislative analysts is something of a dream scenario. Next budget year, it calls for maximum tax credits, no income tax cut and, as a cherry on top, the remaining refunds are expected to be so small they would be distributed evenly to all taxpayers, rather based on income under the six-tier sales tax refund system.

If you’re a conservative, that’s probably not your preferred use of the TABOR surplus. While most Republicans supported the legislation that revamped the refund mechanisms, they generally opposed the new tax credits for low-income families.

CREDITS COME FIRST

So why would the tax credits get activated but not the tax cuts? It has to do with how they’re triggered — and when.

The tax credits kick in if the December revenue forecast expects General Fund revenue to grow by at least 2% in the following year’s budget (or 3% after 2026). The tax credits reach their maximum level at a 3.75% compound annual growth rate — something that’s expected to happen in each of the next two tax years.

Meanwhile, the tax cuts only kick in if there’s at least $300 million left in the TABOR surplus after a senior property tax break is accounted for. And in Colorado budget-land, credits always come first, reducing the surplus before a tax cut can be triggered.

Here’s how it would shake out if the current forecasts hold up:

• In the current budget year, which ends June 30, both forecasts generally agree. After accounting for tax credits, the state would have a surplus of around $1.4 billion. Of that, around $800 million will be distributed through the six-tier sales tax refund and $166 million will cover a senior property tax break. Income taxes would be cut by 0.15%, or over $460 million, their maximum amount.
• In the 2024-25 budget, which starts July 1, both forecasts call for the maximum amount of tax credits — around $800 million that low-income residents could claim on their 2025 taxes. The governor’s forecast would have $695 million leftover, enough for a small tax cut and $374 million in sales tax refunds, distributed by household income. The legislative forecast has just $328 million left — enough to cover the senior homestead exemption and give everyone a $26 flat sales tax refund.
• In the 2025-26 budget, the credits are expected to max out again at around $900 million. But both forecasts expect some tax cuts — just not the full amount. The governor’s forecast expects a $290 million income tax cut, while legislative council staff predict a $400 million tax cut.

One thing to watch: Only the governor’s December forecast will matter for the 2025 tax year. Under the law, whichever forecast the JBC picked to set the budget controls the following year’s tax credits and cuts.

STORY: Colorado ends budget year $164M in the red with potential tax cuts looming on November ballot

THE BIGGER PICTURE

• Could AI reject your resume? California tries to prevent a new kind of discrimination
  — CalMatters
• Why Democrats think Biden’s problem is Biden
  — Politico
• Biden’s lead with women is smaller than Trump’s with men, a warning for Democrats
  — The New York Times 🔑
• Trump’s campaign has lost whatever substance it once had
  — The Atlantic 🔑

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The Colorado Sun is part of The Trust Project. Read our policies.

CORRECTIONS & CLARIFICATIONS

Notice something wrong? The Colorado Sun has an ethical responsibility to fix all factual errors. Request a correction by emailing corrections@coloradosun.com.